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martedì 26 novembre 2013

Obama isolated after the agreement with Iran

The agreement reached with Iran has a look that goes beyond what looks like a successful American diplomat . If Tehran negotiators have had a triumphal reception to Obama things seem to be going in the opposite direction . The American president is isolated in a story that was supposed to be a triumph for U.S. foreign policy. The criticisms come to the agreement , both from within the country American , that 's closest allies in the Middle East . At first glance the responsibility bigger than Obama is to not have been able to do understand the importance of detente with Iran, within the project 's foreign policy drawn up by the White House. The lack of involvement of Israel and Saudi Arabia in what could be an opportunity for relaxing world ever achieved , had also inevitable reflections within the U.S. , where there are strong opinions to the contrary, not only in the Republican , but also in the democratic , and thus risk , to blast the plan to reduce the sanctions against Tehran, and then the whole deal. The rest of Europe, where there is the French defection , it is not enough to offset the very real risk that the balances and alliances in the Middle East are completely revised. The fact that at this time , the U.S. appear more distant from Saudi Arabia that Iran is simply disturbing for a stability that goes far beyond that region. In the rush to reach an agreement with Tehran, Washington has made ​​a mistake, almost amateurish , not to satisfy the growing anger Arabia, which , with the refusal to seat on the Security Council , had done well to understand the level of exasperation reached . Probably before you even start the negotiation with the Iranians , the Saudis had to convince of the need of the Agreement, without taking for granted a bond that was already gradually loosening due to non- intervention in Syria. Obama, in an attempt to pursue its diplomatic policy , to complete the project for a relaxing as comprehensive as possible , has not been able to calculate the variables that the agreement with Iran would trigger , although there are unmistakable signs . Loosen the relationship with Saudi Arabia , although the alliance is not in question , it means above all, a failure to control the possible reactions against the Saudi Iranian historical enemy , the first of which is the possibility that Saudi endows a atomic weapon , going to create a balance of terror , burdened by the deep and mutual religious aversion with Tehran. If this should happen, as feared by the Saudis , would signal that the United States would no longer be considered a fully reliable ally , specifically in the case of a threat from Iran , more power growth . Never as in this case , one can not detect such a hurry to reach the agreement was too hasty and the consequence will be a great effort to recover lost ground , without the security to return to the previous level . On the same line has deteriorated the relationship with Tel Aviv , which can provide even greater damage at home , the presence of Jewish pressure groups . These tensions are reflected on a public opinion not too convinced than signed and therefore highly critical of President Obama. The reasons for the U.S. administration to reach an agreement are inherent in their desire to avert a military attack on Iran , as repeatedly requested by Tel Aviv. Although this is a very reasonable , dictated by the clear inability to predict the outcome and the consequences of a possible conflict , now U.S. policy has not fully understand these reasons, because he does not trust the Iranians, even the new course, and Tehran believes chwe concessions may allow the enrichment of plutonium, such as to reach nuclear weapons . In fact, Obama 's plans is the desire not to attend passively to rebalance regional , conditioned by the political turmoil going on. If before the U.S. could count on secure Egypt and Saudi Arabia itself , predictions of possible changes regarding even the Saudi monarchy , have forced the White House to rethink its relationship with Tehran. If this immediate course of action may give rise to doubts , it is undeniable that the need to prevent the news of the regional political arrangements , obligations sometimes unpopular choices and incomprehensible . However, without an internal support sufficient to support this view, Obama is likely to fail across the board and in that case the structure that may arise from this defeat would be totally unpredictable and able to undermine peace in the region and the world economy .

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