Politica Internazionale

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venerdì 31 ottobre 2014

The US military action against the caliphate is likely to favor Assad

The United States admitted that concentrate all the military strategy against the Islamic state, has come to favor Assad. The bombing of the American aircraft against the forces of the caliphate were made both in Iraq and in Syria, where they have been authorized, but not opposed by Damascus, even with diplomatic protests, so much to do favor some analysts for a new role in Assad as an American ally. This hypothesis was disproved by Washington, who claims to be unable to support politically and militarily a war effort over a territory as large. In fact, the efforts of the United States would be even more focused on Iraqi soil, leaving the defense of the more moderate Sunnis in Syria, a goal of both the forces of the caliphate than those of Assad. However, it is undeniable that the dictator of Damascus has received benefits from the actions that have weakened the forces of the Islamic state, and that allowed him to focus its enforcement action against precisely defined areas of the country under the control of the forces of moderation. Assad exploits the concentration of American military action against the caliphate and puts in place a tactic that aims to conquer as much territory as possible with a view to ending the conflict in order to present to the negotiating table a situation favorable to him. For this reason, in many environments the United States are critical moves to the conduct of the White House, which at this time is actually more focused on the preservation of Iraq, with the exception of the city of Kobani where they are concentrated bombing in defense of Kurdish enclave . In Syria, the humanitarian situation is quite critical in the area where the action is concentrated Assad favored the withdrawal of the jihadists. The UN envoy, the Italian diplomat has proposed the creation of free zones where combat condense the civilian population, to be placed under the auspices of the United Nations. One of these areas would be located in the city of Aleppo, is under attack by the rebels, which the Syrian regular forces. The simultaneous situation of adversity moderated between the rebel forces and the government of Damascus, against the Islamic state, recognized by both extremely dangerous, can promote a political solution that will allow the civilian population to find some sort of respite from the fighting. This could, however, hide a tactic Assad, made to reinforce it on the ground for greater allocation of war, if this hypothesis is true would arise the necessity of the presence of a neutral peacekeeping force, as the blue helmets, hard to find at this stage of the conflict. However, any negotiations could lay the groundwork for a political solution to the conflict, with the continued presence of contraindications Assad to the negotiating table. On this aspect the feedback America are not clear, though Washington has always opposed to Assad's hold on power is also true that the importance of the role of Iran against the Caliphate has grown, while the issue of nuclear talks in Tehran continues to play particularly important for Obama. Assuming that the issue of the caliphate can be resolved, the time in which it can be defined much affect on whether or not Assad still on the scene. Damascus is important that a possible resolution of the conflict is not too fast, because it could allow the US and its allies such as Turkey and the Gulf monarchies to focus on the defeat of the Syrian regime. If the United States does not want openly having to deploy in a conflict against Assad, as they have so far avoided, should step up aid to moderate forces, as, on the other hand, does not seem to happen. They were different, in fact, rejected the appeals made ​​by the moderate forces, who also objected to the choice of defending Kobani without an equal focus on areas of Syria. The reality is that it is the beginning of the Syrian conflict, well before the birth of the Caliphate, which Washington has not yet made a final decision with respect to serious and chronic indecision Assad and this was one of the factors that has led to the birth of the Islamic state . The US must make a decision on Damascus, otherwise suspicions that Assad has become a secret ally become more and more a question too embarrassing.

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