Politica Internazionale

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venerdì 27 marzo 2015

The US needs a new relationship with Iran

American interests can no longer apart from Iran. This is why the White House insists on maintaining the line of negotiations on the nuclear issue, despite some slowdown. The two countries are still far apart on many things and even within them there are strong opposition to closer relations, as well as in the field of US allies, especially regional ones, who see this potential link as a threat to their stability. This is especially the monarchies of the Gulf and Israel, between, from different points of view, but more of a strategic, their opposition to the gradual rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. However the need for Washington's foreign policy in relations with Iran is more structured and complex, since it embraces the themes of the fight against Islamic terrorism, in the short term to the caliphate, in the long processing of a prevention strategy that includes common also broader issues such as the Afghan problem. It must be specified that the White House was almost forced to move in opposite directions to the state of the previous alliances: the stillness, just in Saudi Arabia, when it has taken actions that have not been able to control, as the initial support in Syria to the militias that gave birth to the caliphate, remained firm on declarations of principle, without providing adequate support against the enemies of the US, the attitude of Israel, unable to solve the Palestinian problem and only attentive to their needs , has created a sense of mistrust, which has resulted in the need to find new partners. A similar case occurred in the relationship with Pakistan, long considered an ally highly unreliable, while continuing the relationship, for the handling of the case of Afghanistan, it became clear that Iran, which the Taliban have a common enemy , will help ensure a more concrete. If these predictions come true could move the central axis of the American alliances, under the religious point of view, from more ties with the Sunnis toward those with the Shiites. This factor involves the growing importance of the phenomenon of terrorism Sunni, escaped the control of the authorities, both political and religious, who should control it. The case of the Islamic state, which represents a change of paradigm radial, even compared to Al Qaeda, is a clear example of the situation out of control from external authorities in which the caliphate, where the base of its strength there is a clear exercise of sovereignty over a territory, more or less defined, so you stand as a state entity, albeit unrecognized, able to give an institutional and laws that govern the life of the population. If this phenomenon is out of hand to the Arab countries that have contributed financially and with other aid it be born, is already a weak side view of American allies, but it is even worse that the states which enjoy close alliance US do not put in the field sufficient forces to eradicate the phenomenon. This does not happen with the Shiites, there are, at present phenomena similar to the caliphate, but the array of Shiite, the feeling is that the control exercised by Iran on the Shiite paramilitary formations is safer; it does not mean that in the future may not develop similar situations, perhaps even as a reaction of the relations with the US, but for now, from this point of view, Iran provides more guarantees. Certainly do accept a successful conclusion of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear allies against, it will be necessary to agree guarantees that Tehran is not able to use the civilian nuclear technology for military purposes, a condition that includes some confidence to be given to the Iranians, an essential element for start a new bilateral relationship.

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