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martedì 24 novembre 2015

Possible reasons of killing Russian warplane

The shooting down of the Russian military by Turkey, brings a new element very dangerous in the entire economy of the Middle East conflict. According to the Turkish version of the plane would boundless space of Ankara, before being hit by a missile, you would have made all the procedures of warning. According to Moscow the incident would have occurred, however, in the skies and Syrians would then treated, at best, a tragic accident. The Russian air activity practiced by the Air Force has long which is done in defiance of national boundaries and norms of international law, several times during the conflict in Ukraine, the Moscow jet flew over the skies of the Baltic republics and also in other occasions are produced in dangerous evolutions always able to generate potential accidents. It is not known at the time, if what happened in Turkey, but it is a fact that Russia has often used provocation as a weapon of air pressure on both enemy states, which were not on in line with the objectives of the Kremlin. Formally, Russia is Turkey that are against the Islamic Republic, but Ankara is clearly opposed to the Assad regime and, consequently, the Russian intervention in Syria, Turkey also suspect that Moscow will provide aid to the Kurds and, above all, to those who fight the caliphate coming just from Turkey. So even if there are no positions officially recognized contrast, in practice the reasons of friction are many and important. That Turkey is one of the states that define lukewarm in the fight against the caliphate is an understatement, what is ascertained; as it is a fact that Ankara is pushing for a solution for Syria, which does not provide for the future presence of Assad and provides for delivery of power to the Sunni Muslims; with these assumptions, the Russian action could have had the intent of intimidation in line with the conduct so far in international disputes by Putin. The most immediate problem is that Turkey is part of NATO and that the overrunning Russian aircraft could be considered a hostile act from Brussels. At the same time Russia, at this time it is closely allied to France, also a member of the Atlantic Alliance in the fight against the caliphate. The accident, therefore, in a mature phase where different parts of the western camp, especially from countries of Western and Central Europe, were affecting attitudes in favor of a greater involvement of Moscow, also alongside the Atlantic Alliance against the Islamic state. This involvement has been read by Sunni countries, and probably rightly so, as an element of bias in favor of Assad, arousing deep apprehension in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It also remains true that Russia is pursuing a strategy that aims to split the Atlantic Alliance, as, in part, is already succeeding with preferential military relations maintained with Paris. The real problem for Turkey is that it is increasingly gaining an opinion where Assad is recognized as the lesser evil, opinion that without Russian help, would have stayed at a theoretical level, but now is taking shape in an increasingly clear. In all this, the US seems to remain on the sidelines, they need the turkish, although limited and not very convinced, for the granting of the bases of Ankara, essential for the US raid, but, at the same time, do not want to exacerbate the situation with Russia, considered an ally able to help defeat the caliphate. More likely this incident will help increase the creeping tension between Russia and Turkey, without aggravating their official positions, while unofficial ones may alter considerably, but in a still outside officialdom, however this may be a factor slowdown in the fight against the caliphate.

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