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mercoledì 30 marzo 2016

The Palmira conquest allows Assad to political changes at the international level

The conquest of Palmyra, as well as being important from a military point of view, because it will allow the Syrian army to extend its action against the Islamic Republic toward regaining of Raqqa, represents an important milestone in the assad strategy to enhance its image, even in the eyes of Westerners, as the caliphate containment function. The army of the Islamic state had conquered the city of Palmira, famous for its archaeological remains, in the last year, arousing great fanfare for the treatment of Roman ruins, many of them destroyed. Palmira had become the symbol of culture fall into the hands of fundamentalists crude, representing a kind of metaphor for the fate that could touch the West. The conquest of the city of Palmyra and its archaeological site, one of the most important in the world, are a big half in favor of Assad and his Russian allies, to establish itself as deeply committed to the fight against Islamic terrorism. In the future the achievement of Palmyra is a kind of insurance on the future of Assad, who has now virtually averted any possibility of exit from the political scene the future of Syria and, on the contrary, should see him as the star of the future structure of Damascus. In fact, his military advance aside any possibility of a political transition without his presence, as requested by the opposition at the Geneva table. This scenario is primarily a defeat for those Sunni states such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, who had worked to have a full influence on the Syrian country, especially in optical anti Iran. For the United States and Europe this result, although not positive, it represents the present state of things, the lesser evil, especially when you consider the priority of the fight against the caliphate, to achieve without a personal commitment on the ground of Western military. Precisely because of this desire Assad is trying to apply for accreditation to Western countries and the United States itself, as one of the few forces capable of defeating the armies of the Islamic state. Of course without the commitment of Russia the fate of Assad he seemed marked, but it probably was also to Syria which could be conquered almost in its entirety by the troops of the caliphate; instead the dictator of Damascus should further strengthen its position thanks to the advanced toward Raqqa for the reconquest of the city, which currently is a stronghold of the Islamic state. But before the Syrian offensive aimed at regaining the oil fields are located just 30 km from Palmyra, which represent a considerable source of revenue for the coffers of the caliphate. The Russian presence continues to be a key factor in the victories of Assad, according to some analysts only one-third of Russian military aircraft is back at home and the aviation action in Moscow, joined the ranks of Assad on the ground is the combination determining to defeat the caliphate. The rest was the same plan of Obama, who is working in Iraq for the presence on the ground of Iraqi regular troops and Kurdish, but Syria has not been able to have the same result for the poor military preparedness of the formations formed by Assad opponents , in reality, often contemporary goal, both of the caliphate troops, who of those of Damascus. That the Assad success is very relevant as shown by the number of those killed in the battle of the Islamic State of Palmyra, it estimated at more than 400 units, which represents the biggest loss for the caliphate in a single battle. Though for now the Assad successes mean for Western defeat of the Islamic state, it is impossible not to think about what will happen in the future, when you will have to decide on the future of the Syrian country is not unreasonable to suppose that Damascus wants to enforce its rights, this also supported by Moscow and Tehran, which eventually will have played a decisive role in the tide of the war. What promises to be a long and laborious negotiations, which must also take into account the needs of the Kurds and the fate of the same opponents of Assad, which should be guaranteed, not only insurance own safety, but also a political role at the table negotiations. Always with the looming threat of disappointed represented by the Turks and the Saudis, and in general by the Sunnis.

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