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giovedì 15 giugno 2017

Egypt looks for a greater dimension in the Sunni world

The sale of the small Egyptian islands in the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia must be framed in the offensive that the Saudi monarchies have undertaken against Qatar and in the more general context of the opposition between Sunni and Shi'ite. The decision to donate the small uninhabited islands, but with great strategic importance to the Red Sea, by Cairo, which had been in control since 1906, has raised heavy controversies and conflicts in the Egyptian country and, from a legal point of view, The constitutional court of the country had given the opposite opinion, inverted, but by a lower court. Egyptian President Al Sisi has once again demonstrated the degree of respect for the institutions of the country and how a dictatorship is in force. From the point of view of international politics, Egypt has surrendered the islands in the context of the alliance with the Saudi monarchies, in exchange for wealthy aid, aimed at lifting a crisis economy, but above all to more firmly sanction the alliance Politics with the Saudi monarchies: a counterattack created by the Sunni blockade against Iran, whose goal is to reduce Tehran's political weight. The presence at Trump's White House has favored this new scenario, which, however, is based on a much less solid basis than it does. Qatari's accusations of financing terrorism come from a number of countries strongly suspected of having contributed to the development of terrorism in the Middle East with the intent of reaching influence on Syria and Iraq . In this scenario, Qatar's position has not been different from the states that have declared the current diplomatic ostracism, but the issue seems to be to counter a member within the Saudi area, which is looking for a more autonomous dimension Compared to other Sunni monarchies; Trade ties with Iran and support for the Muslim Brotherhood are an objective element of disruption to the integrity of the Sunni front. In this context, the insertion of Egypt, even with the donation of the islands to Saudi Arabia, represents for Cairo the goal of a new dimension within the regional area and the Sunni block. If this is to happen at the expense of Qatar, it is soon to be said, because Qatar, despite the allegations, is still strategic to the United States. What is to be noted is that from the Arabian peninsula the Sunni block extends to the Egyptian country with greater cohesion, with the clear intent of surrounding the area of ​​influence that Tehran holds on Syria. In this, the Saudi monarchies have an important, albeit unofficial, ally in Israel, which has common aversion to Iran. On the Iraqi side, however, the issue is more complex: the defeat of the Islamic State can not be without direct application on the ground, both from the Kurdish militia and the Shiite militia, two protagonists, which for different reasons are not welcome to Sunni galaxy, especially if Turkey also includes this alliance. The central point is that in the already unstable Middle Eastern scenario, the fracture within the Sunni block can only lead to further uncertainty, especially if we consider Trump's ambiguous and above all uncertain role. In this context, the quest for emergence of subjects, albeit important but more peripheral in the regional context, such as Egypt, is a novelty, which must be contextualized to the needs of Cairo, which is essentially an international way to solve its own Internal problems, both politically and economically. To surrender part of its territory and, consequently, to lose sovereignty over strategic positions involves a calculated sacrifice, but only to the contingent situation, which does not take into account the virtually certain discontent that is being added to a population already strongly tested. Al Sisi's strategy, which seeks to recover international positions, could prove fatal on the domestic front, fueling hostile hostility even because of the proximity to Tel Aviv and bringing the country to a critical point that could only complicate The general picture of the Arab situation.

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