Politica Internazionale

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martedì 29 agosto 2017

North Korea launches a rocket flying over Japan

The North Korean rocket, which has flipped Japan, would be the first constructor for the purpose of carrying an atomic bomb. It was a medium-range missile, but it is a testimony to the progress made by Pyongyang's missile technology, to get the more distant countries to the threat. One can reasonably think that the evolution of these carriers, from medium to long range, is within the prospects of North Korea. Different is the discourse of the possibility, which seems still far away, to be able to miniaturize an atomic bomb to the extent necessary to be installed on these rockets. The analysis of these two factors must go hand in hand, as the availability of the atomic bomb is already in the Pyongyang arsenal, in classical mode, meaning that it involves using a bomber as a means of using it. Not yet the possibility of using it through a missile carrier. However, Pyongyang goes hand in hand with laboratory studies to reduce the size of the atomic bomb and building, with associated tests, rockets capable of achieving the goals of the regime. If, according to some analysts, the possibility of reaching some US cities is already a concrete fact, the perception is that North Korean military engineers want to test smaller rails to reach a higher degree of precision. Another reason for the use of these experiments could be political: Pyongyang does not want at this stage to threaten the US as well as its allies, who are part of the US armed forces with so much hated joint exercises near North Korean waters , And the same US installations in the Pacific Ocean, and in particular the US base of the Guam Island, about 3,000 km from the North Korean country. The choice of a medium-sized missile would thus be in this scenario of indirect threats to the US, through its allies: in fact the use of a carrier capable of covering the distance with the American base would become a direct attack against Washington. The impression is once again that Kim Jong-a wants to play the usual gambling tactics, trying to bring the situation to a limit that it does not want to overcome. However, in this latest launch, which has crossed the Japanese territory before crashing into the sea, it is not possible to see a rise in the level of danger of these provocations, which could have been the consequences if the carrier lost power directly Japan's soil causing casualties and damages? Already the invasion of Japanese airspace has been established, and provocation can not be considered as a real act of war, finished, probably in a way, with no practical implications, except that of violation of international law; But with other consequences the international situation would now be totally different. What's more, the stability and regional security are constantly being threatened, and a greater involvement of actors such as China and Russia is essential. If at this moment the line of prudence appears obligatory, diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang must not be loosened, although the ultimate goal must be to establish negotiations with the North Korean regime. Even if you understand the reasons for the US sitting at the same table with Kim Jong-un, the path to negotiating to stabilize the situation seems to be the most reasonable, rather than opting for a strength test, which would annul the North Korean regime, A very high price in terms of human lives and infrastructures in South Korea and Japan. In these cases, the unofficial work of diplomacy is essential, which continues without interruption even in the acute phases of dialectics between the states, in order to keep the channels of non-official dialogue open. Even through these instruments, it is necessary to open an international confrontation between opposing countries, which can define a dangerous situation, to ensure a more and more needed relaxation far beyond regional boundaries, but for the entire global international scenario.

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