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martedì 21 novembre 2017

Assad meets Putin for the future layout of Syria

Assad's visit to Russia seems to want to celebrate Moscow's intervention in the Syrian war. The Syrian President personally brought his own thanks to Putin and all the Russian military apparatus for the support that the Kremlin secured in Damascus, allowing him to overthrow a situation that had emerged as clearly unfavorable: without intervention Russian military, in fact, the fate of the regime and, probably, Assad himself appeared marked. The new fact is that Putin seems to want to take on a political role after the military: in fact, the Kremlin chief has explicitly spoken of wanting to occupy the political process that will have to end at the end of hostilities. Indeed, with the awareness that military operations are going to end, Russia intends to be the protagonist of the future developments of the Syrian country. For Syria, Putin represents a strategic ally, both for the Mediterranean, the only Russian base in this sea is in Tartus, both as an outpost in the Middle East and back in the world. Nor is the importance of the image of Moscow to be underestimated, as thanks to the intervention in Syria, Russia has returned to play the role of great power, which, from the end of the Soviet Union, was no longer exercising. The two political leaders' speeches focused on the fight against terrorism, both as a local struggle within the Syrian country and in a wider vision at world level. This operation to make terrorism equal to all those who have fought against the regular Syrian army, an instrumental operation, serves Assad to unite all its opponents in a generic terrorism without distinguishing, for example, the Islamic state from the opposition to the dictatorship of Damascus or Kurdish groups. Moreover, the tactics of the Syrian government have always been this, even in the most bloody stages of the battle, also to highlight Assad's role as an embankment and control of movements that could alter regional balances, as recognized by other states like Israel. This position implies the unwillingness of recognizing groups of democratic opposition, opening up a scenario of further controversy within Syrian society, which could be solved by the violent methods with which Assad, and before his father, has always eliminated parties and movements demanding greater democracy in the country. In support of this prediction, the dictator's thanks to Putin should also be mentioned, to collaborate in order to preserve the integrity of the country and the independence of the country from foreign subjects. As for the Islamic State, foreign agents were the Gulf countries, while the foreign agent in question was the United States for democratic opponents. However, an arrangement of the peaceful country can not fail even from Washington and it will be interesting to see how the inner scenario of Syria will develop. From the US perspective, Assad's permanence, which was seen in a totally negative way, has assumed a different value for the struggle against the Caliphate, but an uncontrolled power of the Damascus government can not be accepted, especially for the Iranian side of his side the dictator. Likewise, the Gulf monarchies and even Egypt, that is, the Sunni countries, will not hinder the Syrian government; different, instead, the Turkish position, which positively assesses a united Syria, above all as a burden to the Kurdish will to form a state entity on the borders of Ankara. These are essentially those aspects that will affect the future Syrian political situation, although Assad's position, thanks to Russia, appears to be greatly strengthened.

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