mercoledì 21 marzo 2018
The Turkish action against the Kurds of Syria contains ambiguous signals of international politics
After the conquest of the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin by the Turkish forces, we need to make some considerations about the future of this conflict, which takes place in the absolute indifference of Western countries. The first point concerns the ways in which what is considered the second Army of the Atlantic Alliance has moved in foreign territory in disregard of every rule of international law: at this moment Turkey has annexed almost ten thousand square kilometers of Syrian territory . This is a secondary effect of the conflict that takes place in Syria and that contains potential development elements, with obvious repercussions on regional balances. The modalities of behavior, seen from a juridical point of view, of Turkey should be sanctioned with diplomatic measures, such as economic sanctions and international isolation and the decadence of any contact with the European Union. This is because, in addition to the aforementioned infringement of international law, Turkey has used military force against an entity, the Syrian Kurd, which has been decisive for the defeat of the Islamic State and to which the West should tangibly demonstrate its own gratitude. Another element, which if proved will represent a further reason for the possible sanction of Turkey, is the use against the Kurds of Sunni militias, deployed alongside the regular army of Ankara. According to the Kurds in these militias would be recognized as belonging to the Islamic State: it is understood that if this were true, it would be proven proof of an involvement of Turkey in the use of the Islamic State as an instrument, both to annihilate the Kurds, and to conquer Syria, used since the beginning of the Caliphate's entry into the war. Even if we want to understand the reasons of state and the interests of international relations, the question is whether there is still a political opportunity and a general convenience, to have any connection with the Turkish regime of Erdogan. The Turkish offensive, however, has struggled more than expected to be right of the Kurdish Afrin and this unexpected slowdown could affect any decisions by Ankara to continue the attacks on the area of Kobane and, especially, to the eastern part of the Kurdish region, the one where the American military is present. On Kurdish defeat it is necessary to consider the fate of the Kurds, who, although divided within them, risk being abandoned once again by the West who have helped in various conflicts. Should a negative awareness of Western countries be born within the Kurdish movement, the creation of terrorist forms should be considered as possible to focus attention on the Kurdish question: an avoidable problem placing adequate attention at the center of the international political agenda. towards this problem that has been dragging on for too long. Meanwhile, in addition to the fighters, there is still a high tribute of victims among the civilian population, which according to Kurdish sources would amount to about one thousand dead persons, while according to the Human Rights Observatory a Syria the dead would be 285. The reckoning of refugees, instead, according to the humane organizations would be 150,000 civilians fleeing the region. Making assumptions about the future of this conflict is difficult, because there are still too many variables at stake and alliances and contrarieties, both between different countries, and between organizations in the field, often get confused, returning a picture too confused because of the respective interests, which vary over time and in the spaces in question. However, it is not difficult to hypothesize a terrorist response of the Kurds in Turkish territory, a solution that would be better not to occur in order not to feed the spiral of a quantitatively already too extensive violence. On the military level the most probable hypothesis, if the western answer is always absent, is a closer link between the Syrian Kurds and the Assad regime, the only one that has expressed support for the Kurdish cause, for obvious reasons of interest in the maintenance of its sovereignty over the territory of Syria and to avoid Turkish interference within its borders. If this link were to become tighter, the consequences of the framework of current alliances could be destined to undergo decisive changes.