lunedì 11 giugno 2018
After the G7, Trump pushes the US to isolation
At the G7 in Canada, the US was alone against everyone and almost completely disagreed on most of the points in the discussion program. The only convergences seem to have been found on gender equality, work and growth, which are important meeting points but also that allow a certain vagueness on the contents and that are not sufficient to bridge the distances that were already known, but which were highlighted even more so. Trump's attitude was hostile even before the start of the summit, so much so that it was feared that only the vice president was present at the United States, as happened with the Peruvian summit of Latin American states. The real risk, that Trump does not sign the final document, rejecting the common declaration completely and, not only the climate aspect, as happened at the Italian summit of Taormina, has been verified. In addition to the climate, the most relevant topics were the duties and the Iranian nuclear treaty issue. The issue of protectionism, which Trump wants to pursue stubbornly, in addition to striking individually the state economies, including those of Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain, ie the remaining members of the G7, risks compromise the agreements reached with China, about trade relations with Beijing. Washington has shown itself to remain unyielding on the will to impose tariffs against Europe and Canada in the measure of 25% on steel and 10% of aluminum and the European will to hit a series of American products with a total tax that rebalancing the amount that will have to undergo steel and aluminum from the old continent, the White House has threatened to introduce further tariffs on cars from Europe and Southeast Asia. One of the main effects, if this threat was implemented, could be the end of the World Trade Organization following a series of actions and reactions that would trigger on the global market. The possibility is that, in terms of international trade, we can go back several years, with the elimination of jobs and the inauguration of a phase of heavy general economic crisis. American isolation, however, is dangerous, first of all, for the US, because the tension with the Europeans could force the old continent to make ever closer collaboration agreements with China, condemning the progressive marginalization of Washington. It is not a remote hypothesis, China and Europe are already substantially in agreement with the climate and global warming and, with increasingly intense commercial and collaborative relationships, could subvert the current state of affairs. For the US, commercial isolation could also result in less political importance, if Europe manages to build its own armed forces and to find one, even minimal, on foreign policy. In this situation, it could also introduce Russia to bring division into the American allies. Trump insists, in his program summarized by the phrase "America first", considering it impossible for historical allies to loose their contacts with Washington, even if they were the object of economic injustice; but the approval of the American president is always lower in Europe and these moves could accelerate the separation from the United States, especially considering the current historical context, where the logic of the opposing blocs has long since set and globalization has opened up scenarios completely different, with new logics, which can not separate the economy from international relations and defense structures. But Trump could overturn reality even more clamorously by opening a channel of privileged dialogue with Moscow, a factor hitherto prevented by the American bureaucracy, that the president is slowly taking on his side with increasingly frequent changes at the top. It has been said that Trump's action is based on an increasingly used unpredictability, however the question is whether behind this use of unpredictability in massive doses, there is a pre-built project or if the American president is based on improvisation due at the moment particular and its momentary opinions. In any case, the US, with Trump in the White House. I am an interlocutor, always important, but always less reliable, from which we need to loosen the bonds as soon as possible, to form a West and a Europe capable of making independent decisions and being able to support them.