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giovedì 21 febbraio 2019

Putin against the Atlantic Alliance missiles in Eastern Europe

The part related to the international issues of Russian President Putin's speech to the nation focused on the issue of American behavior after the US exit from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. First, however, Putin wanted to underline the good relations that Moscow has undertaken with Belarus, China, Japan and India. After this prologue the head of the Kremlin accused the United States of wanting to bring instability on the European continent, precisely for which the treaty had been signed and which had as its objective the maintenance of peace in the old continent. The question invests the American will to install missile defenses in the countries that joined the Atlantic Alliance, which were part of the Soviet bloc and are very close to the Russian country. On the one hand, Putin says he has no interest in coming into conflict with the United States, which defines global power, but, on the other hand, maintains that, although Russia does not intend to be the first to deploy missiles with a radius of action between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, can only respond with measures similar to American provocations. From Trump's point of view, the exit from the treaty was justified, not only, to equalize the situation with China, which was not a signatory of the agreement, but also because Russia was suspected of having violated the treaty, thanks to operations of rearmament and to respond to the need of the American allies of Eastern Europe, who have always supported the danger of Russia, to have sufficient defense systems to balance the threat of Moscow. From the point of view of Putin, the United States, with the installation of missile systems on the Russian border, aim to destabilize the area of ​​influence that Moscow considers as its own, the answer would also be necessary to prevent the repetition of similar cases to the Ukrainian question, whose possible entry into the Atlantic Alliance is deeply opposed by Russia, which could see the US military on its borders. The American attitude provides the perception of a very high threat, so much so that the Russian president affirms that the countermeasures that will be adopted in response to the installation of missiles that can reach Moscow in ten minutes will concern not only the missile bases that will host these weapons, but also the decision-making centers from which they could take orders for their use. The threat, not so much hidden, therefore, concerns the American territory. It is clear that these statements are the consequence of the withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and lead directly to the cold war situation. Putin's statements seemed almost obligatory, a peer-to-peer response with the United States, which was also functional in balancing admissions about the country's internal state. The Russian president must measure himself with a decline in people's confidence due to a difficult economic situation, with long-standing structural problems due to the lack of industrial development due to the excessive importance of the primary sector, linked to energy products and therefore subject to changes in raw material prices , of which Russia is exporter; to this must be added an unstable social situation due to the increase in the retirement age, little appreciated by the Russian people, and to the over-widespread situation of extreme poverty, which affects nineteen million Russians. In this context the decline in the population of the country is seen with concern, which did not happen since 2008. If this time the chances of attenuating the discontent of the Russian people with declarations of the will to bring Russia back to the world power level can not the effects of previous years, the warning speeches to the United States were a necessary, but not sufficient, corollary, which was valid for integrating the promises in economic and social matters most requested by the population. The fact remains that Russia, although in economic difficulty, possesses the technical and financial capabilities to implement the threats against the United States by bringing back the clock of history, even at the cost of further worsening the internal situation due to the probable pressure diplomatic that will follow the eventual installation of missiles and that will materialize with new sanctions, ulterior step towards the worsening of the east-west relations.

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