Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
mercoledì 8 luglio 2015
The nuclear deal is necessary for the development of Iran
Hope
to reach agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue within a short time is
motivated by the need to revive an economy on which weighed too long
economic sanctions. Iranian
society in the hope of improving their condition is very strong, it is a
very dynamic social fabric, ready to welcome the long-awaited
development, despite the presence, often intrusive, religious
authorities. The
nuclear deal is a need first of all for the country of Iran, but also
the US and especially Obama, they need to close the game quickly. Tehran
also would authorize inspections at military sites, but in return he
would ask the embargo on the import of arms, question that Washington
does not like, because it has to address criticisms of the Saudi and
Israeli allies, who with such a concession could further raise the voice. In
any case it is important to reach a conclusion as soon as possible
which results in the end of economic sanctions, because the benefits
will not be immediate. Although
Iran has prepared a long time to return to the market and to welcome
new foreign investments, the effects of these economic initiatives can
not be seen in the short term. In
a first phase the Iranian currency should revalue, thanks to the export
of raw materials, the country holds the fourth world's oil reserves and
the third gas, and thus allow the flow of goods and services, also fine
from abroad. Most
important is the provision of foreign investments that create jobs,
whose chronic shortage forced more than half of young people to
unemployment. It
is, in the majority, of potential skilled workers, able to be employed
in the service sectors, even if the factor of increased stimulus for
growth may not be that, in the initial phase, oil. In
addition to the estimate that concerns some 40 million barrels already
stored and ready to be placed on the market, the authorities are
investigating new systems contracts to attract Western companies,
capable of increasing the earning capacity of the industry. The
sanctions have reduced the productive capacity of the extractive
industry, but the goals are to get to be able to produce about five
million barrels by the end of this decade. Oil
combined with the release of frozen funds in foreign banks, should
allow, also thanks to a technological upgrade, the revival of the
infrastructure sector, which would also allow the turning to strategic
sector of transport and logistics. This
flow of investments and work should also lead to the appearance of the
phenomenon of inflation, view, in this case, as a positive aspect,
because caused by a higher productivity and a greater amount of liquid
circulated in the system, to which should pay an increase in gross domestic product and therefore the improvement of the living conditions of the population. As
we see the expected changes relate to different scenarios, that they
will not generate internal tensions and invest very delicate matters
such as human rights and trade legislation. To
attract, in fact, foreign companies massively, the judiciary will have
to adapt to the presence of companies from other countries and with the
need to access in a reliable and fast to potential disputes that will
occur. Even
the attitude too pervasive religious authorities will have to be
changed enough to not be a hindrance to economic development, which
still must be respectful of the nature of the Iranian theocracy. Hand
in hand will be strengthened the security of the country, especially
against the threat of the Islamic State: Iran's interest to defeat the
terrorists of the Caliphate, which arrived, earlier, almost to the
borders of the country, to stabilize the region. The
biggest problems, from the diplomatic point of view, are given by the
relations with the Sunni countries and with Israel, which sees the
return of Iran in the international arena, as a threat to the current
situation, both political and economic. On
this front, Iran will have to work to find ways of living together they
could do make it necessary to change the paradigms on which it was
based until now the foreign policy of Tehran.
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