Sinai, the new scenario of the action of the Caliphate

The situation in the Sinai is worrying, for its possible developments, international diplomats. The attacks, which took place with the usual technique used by men of the caliphate, sudden and bloody, reveal the will of the Islamic state of destabilizing a particularly sensitive area in the Middle East chessboard. In this territory they are added emergencies can alter very unstable equilibrium, given the presence of Israel, the Gaza Strip and Egypt thereof. Tel Aviv is likely to find men of the caliphate right on its boundary line: action against Israel would have a huge media coverage, in line with the practices of the Islamic state. But Hamas has united its enemies, because the Islamic fundamentalists are trying in every way to foment the Palestinians, acting outside the control of the main organization of the strip. The trio is completed by Egypt, where the men of the caliphate find fertile ground for their proselytism, thanks to the repression that the military and are being made against the Muslim Brotherhood. Certainly the Islamic state, for now, does not have the possibility of a territorial occupation as happened in Iraq and in Syria and this hypothesis hardly could take against the Egyptian army, far more prepared than Iraq, but certainly holds the military capabilities to organize a series of attacks and keep the territory constantly apprehensive. Israel has already reinforced its numbers along the border and can count on a very strong alliance with Egypt the military, particularly pleased to be ousted from power the Islamist parties; but this alliance can also be a catalyst not indifferent to acts of terrorism striking. The helpful staff willing to sacrifice himself he can count on the Islamic state seems enormous and the nature of the attacks brought to fruition shows a considerable ability in practice terrorist. The most immediate objective, and also the most viable, might just be the one to undermine the control of Hamas on the Gaza Strip, to bring attacks on Israel from points adjacent to its territory; the result would be a retaliation of Tel Aviv that could favor the influence of the Islamic state on Islamic repressed Egypt. Certainly the caliphate can not think of attacking Israel to weaken its strength, but can benefit from attacking what it symbolizes to exaggerate more and more its action and by this to increase his followers. It goes without saying that the people of Gaza are exhausted by hard years imposed by Israel and that in younger people the lure of the Islamic state may be such that it can not be refused. Tel Aviv Hamas might regret, that the comparison of the Caliphate appears much more moderate and has a much more limited horizon, which is based on the liberation of Palestine and the establishment of Islamic law in an increasingly wider area. Similarly Egypt, which did not solve the issue with certain Islamic martial law, you could find exposed to constant attacks, which were intended only to further harden the reaction in Cairo for groped to lift the Arab masses. While the intention of the Islamic State is to conquer Syria, the game is still in progress, but the overall picture is not quiet to Israel in danger of being surrounded by Islamic extremists from both sides of its border. Would occur so fears that Tel Aviv felt with the progress of the Arab Spring, that is, that the destabilization of Arab authoritarian regimes would open the way to insecurity in the region. In fact that is what has happened because of the inadequacy of the new Arab political class unable to fill the power vacuums that have come to create. The tactical ability of the Islamic state was not only the military and organization, but was also to fill, though fortunately not at all, a political vacuum with an alternative way completely antithetical to the democratic one. This has already generated alliances hybrid, just as the one between Israel and Egypt, or the same informal collaboration between the US and Iran, countries that combine with opposite characteristics. It's played in Sinai could become a crucial match in the general framework of the fight against terrorism, because it can subvert balance, which if changed, will cause difficult to remedy situations.