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giovedì 28 gennaio 2016

The US evaluate an intervention in Libya against the caliphate

The United States, through the military personnel of the Department of Defense, they would be considering the delicate situation in Libya, aggravated by the massive presence of fighters affiliated to the Islamic state. The concern in Washington would grow, despite the agreement signed by the two governments in power in the country of Libya, to find a form of cooperation. In fact the agreement, for the moment seems to be no practical implementation, and this is probably the reason for US concern, linked to the presence of the fighters of the Islamic State. The caliphate, in fact, would fill the power vacuum, which has not yet been filled by the end of the Gaddafi regime. Libya, under the dictatorship, has not delivered social structures and political alternatives to the central power and ended the government of Colonel, found itself without a real possibility of replacing the system of power fell. Did not appear sufficient for this purpose the many tribes in which divided the country and represent only basic social structures, often at odds, too divided and insufficient to fill the political vacuum that has been created. The direct consequence was the rejection of the electoral verdict, had decreed that the conditions for the formation of a secular government, heavily lined from the policy under the influence of religion, which then created a further executive and at odds with one legitimately elected . Compounding the situation of the country there is the presence of numerous armed gangs and militias subject to criminal organizations, which may have arsenals, very provided and disseminated in the territory of the country by the forces of Gaddafi. A scenario, then deep division, where an organized force, cohesive and very numerous as the caliphate can fit in a relatively easy to replicate the conditions imposed in Syria and Iraq. The immediate proximity to European countries would make this prospect even more dangerous than the severe situation of the territories of the Middle East where the Islamic state has imposed its sovereignty. In the opinion of American military personnel in contact with the Libyan reality, the actual armed caliphate on the country's Mediterranean south, it would be about 3,000, a number considered sufficient to undermine the weak and nascent political structure of Libya. The White House, for now, true to his current course of action, excludes direct use of US troops on Libyan soil, but it seems to opt for a solution similar to those practiced in Syria and Iraq, with the use of military aircraft; the intention would be to actions circumscribed and limited in time, but capable of decisively limiting the operations of the troops of the Islamic state. This vision, however, is likely to repeat the current situation in Syria and Iraq, where the use of military aviation was overvalued and did not lead to definitive resolution of the problem. The explanation may also be other: the US wants to send a strong signal to both the caliphate, which the European countries, perhaps especially the latter, who are struggling with a discussion to deploy troops on the ground, which, however, is not leading to a solution rapidly. The American intervention could allow, through the weakening of the Caliphate in Libya, of protracted discussions between European nations to find a solution and ease the pressure on the new government of Libya, in order to arrange a first offensive to regain control of its territory. It is a tactic strongly it waits, that, if it does not achieve the desired effects, would endanger the coasts of northern Europe. On the other hand you can not expect to delegate the defense of its territory in an integral way to the United States: Europe has some serious faults, which date back to the mismanagement of the war to Gaddafi and, above all, in the aftermath, when the Libya has been left to itself; It is at this time that have created conditions for the establishment of Islamic extremists, then absorbed by the caliphate. The elapsed time was not short, despite what the European states have not yet been able to organize their preventive defense capable of preserving Libya from the contagion of the Islamic state. The current phase of history no longer provides that for every problem there is the exclusive American engagement, the United States, while offering a substantial aid, are no longer able to ensure such an effort and then the response of other states must be concrete and effective; unlike the European coast of the Mediterranean will be far more danger than smuggling submit europe.

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