Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 28 gennaio 2016
The US evaluate an intervention in Libya against the caliphate
The
United States, through the military personnel of the Department of
Defense, they would be considering the delicate situation in Libya,
aggravated by the massive presence of fighters affiliated to the Islamic
state. The
concern in Washington would grow, despite the agreement signed by the
two governments in power in the country of Libya, to find a form of
cooperation. In
fact the agreement, for the moment seems to be no practical
implementation, and this is probably the reason for US concern, linked
to the presence of the fighters of the Islamic State. The caliphate, in fact, would fill the power vacuum, which has not yet been filled by the end of the Gaddafi regime. Libya,
under the dictatorship, has not delivered social structures and
political alternatives to the central power and ended the government of
Colonel, found itself without a real possibility of replacing the system
of power fell. Did
not appear sufficient for this purpose the many tribes in which divided
the country and represent only basic social structures, often at odds,
too divided and insufficient to fill the political vacuum that has been
created. The
direct consequence was the rejection of the electoral verdict, had
decreed that the conditions for the formation of a secular government,
heavily lined from the policy under the influence of religion, which
then created a further executive and at odds with one legitimately
elected . Compounding
the situation of the country there is the presence of numerous armed
gangs and militias subject to criminal organizations, which may have
arsenals, very provided and disseminated in the territory of the country
by the forces of Gaddafi. A
scenario, then deep division, where an organized force, cohesive and
very numerous as the caliphate can fit in a relatively easy to replicate
the conditions imposed in Syria and Iraq. The
immediate proximity to European countries would make this prospect even
more dangerous than the severe situation of the territories of the
Middle East where the Islamic state has imposed its sovereignty. In
the opinion of American military personnel in contact with the Libyan
reality, the actual armed caliphate on the country's Mediterranean
south, it would be about 3,000, a number considered sufficient to
undermine the weak and nascent political structure of Libya. The
White House, for now, true to his current course of action, excludes
direct use of US troops on Libyan soil, but it seems to opt for a
solution similar to those practiced in Syria and Iraq, with the use of
military aircraft; the
intention would be to actions circumscribed and limited in time, but
capable of decisively limiting the operations of the troops of the
Islamic state. This
vision, however, is likely to repeat the current situation in Syria and
Iraq, where the use of military aviation was overvalued and did not
lead to definitive resolution of the problem. The
explanation may also be other: the US wants to send a strong signal to
both the caliphate, which the European countries, perhaps especially the
latter, who are struggling with a discussion to deploy troops on the
ground, which, however, is not leading to a solution rapidly. The
American intervention could allow, through the weakening of the
Caliphate in Libya, of protracted discussions between European nations
to find a solution and ease the pressure on the new government of Libya,
in order to arrange a first offensive to regain control of its territory. It
is a tactic strongly it waits, that, if it does not achieve the desired
effects, would endanger the coasts of northern Europe. On
the other hand you can not expect to delegate the defense of its
territory in an integral way to the United States: Europe has some
serious faults, which date back to the mismanagement of the war to
Gaddafi and, above all, in the aftermath, when the Libya has been left to itself; It is at this time that have created conditions for the establishment of Islamic extremists, then absorbed by the caliphate. The
elapsed time was not short, despite what the European states have not
yet been able to organize their preventive defense capable of preserving
Libya from the contagion of the Islamic state. The
current phase of history no longer provides that for every problem
there is the exclusive American engagement, the United States, while
offering a substantial aid, are no longer able to ensure such an effort
and then the response of other states must be concrete and effective; unlike the European coast of the Mediterranean will be far more danger than smuggling submit europe.
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