Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 23 settembre 2013
The consequences of the victory of Angela Merkel
The electoral victory of Chancellor Merkel, demonstrates the will of the German people not to interrupt a political program aimed both within , and outside , especially to Europe. Just this perspective , rigor and austerity was the reason that the more convinced the Germans to confirm the outgoing trust to the Chancellor . However, the victory is not as clear as it seems and the tensions and visions than Europe does not facilitate the task , despite the overwhelming victory . Failure to entry into parliament of the most loyal allies , the Liberals , offset by the percentage of his own party , should oblige Merkel to loosen somewhat the harshness of the penalty imposed the European Union , the operation, however, is far from ' anything but easy , as the German people away from a Eurocentric vision to affirm the independence of Germany from Brussels institutions . Merkel remains a convinced -European , mainly because it is aware that the market of the old continent remains strategic for German products , but now has to deal with anyone who asks , just from the ranks of industrial policies more permissive , they can revive the market both domestic and international . The needs of the country about a modernization of infrastructure, may require a financial commitment where the state coffers would be forced to implement expansionary policies , also made up of loans, which would not allow an attitude opposite to similar measures in the countries of southern Europe , subjected to financial constraints ironclad , which blocked the growth and stimulated unemployment. In relation to the concept of a centralized federal Europe , however, the address that Merkel seems to want to take is to renegotiate a goal so far failed to develop new forms of relations with states , where the bond of Brussels is more attenuated . We understand that fiscal union or political union , in such a scenario are required to leave , threatening to undermine years of efforts for the unity of Europe . Moreover, the pressure of population, which has given confidence to Merkel , seem to favor a greater detachment from the EU , just to stay away from the upheavals and the financial difficulties of Southern Europe. If this trend will continue will only occur clashes with the European institutions , intended to be passed on to little chance of recovery in the euro . A similar trend could lead to Germany, to be even more distant from those states , such as France and Italy , that push for greater legislative and governmental importance of Brussels, in a framework of possible development based on the redistribution of income to the countries in difficulty , although in a grand panorama of rigid rules and constraints to change. In this case, one possible scenario , even if extreme, could see Berlin approximate positions of London. It is a hypothesis to be formulated with great caution , because Germany has no interest in any case out of the euro , and the failure of the party's election which was based on this possibility also bears witness to the will of the electorate , because the constitution and needs of its production structure , made up of factories that produce goods , compared to the economic driving force that English is finance . What could more easily come true is a block of the direction that the European central intend to take in favor of maintaining the sovereignty of national governments greater than the central European institutions , in order to facilitate the maintenance of German supremacy , thanks to its economic strength . This could allow you to keep more leeway , as requested by the voters , and at the same time, continue to influence the financial policy of the common currency , it is , however, a defensive attitude , which , in the long run , it could create tensions those with other member states , can challenge even a particularly strong as the German one . After the euphoria of victory for Merkel, issues will arise only solvable with a cautious policy , also made of political balancing acts , which do not relate only to the European front , but also the internal certainly not devoid of problems difficult to manage.
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