Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 30 dicembre 2013
The reasons of the attacks in Russia
Russia is under the attack of terrorism, when it is almost at the beginning of the Winter Olympics . The theater of the attacks , two that are repeated within walking distance of each other , is the city of Volgograd, which is located about 700 km from Sochi , site of the Olympic event . The methods of terrorist acts , a suicide attack and a bomb placed in a bag located in the train station, suggest that behind it is the work of Islamic radicals , possibly from Chechnya , who intend to provoke a wave of fear in conjunction with the ' event of the Olympics , even for a considerable media coverage . The reasons for the attacks should be sought not only in the Chechen independence movements , even in the Syrian issue , where the increased importance of radical Sunnis, which is part of a large contingent of its fighters from Chechnya , a terrorist could use the method to pressure Moscow , which remains , along with Iran , the main ally of Assad. It would , that is, an evolution of the conflict in Syria , which would hit home the allies of Damascus. If this hypothesis proves to be well founded, the predictions of the enlargement of the conflict , which now have been limited to the Middle East , should be reviewed in considerably more negative sense . The hypothesis does not seem risky , although it is yet to be confirmed: Islamic extremists could put together the struggle for independence with an aversion to Russian foreign policy practiced in Syria. This is a plausible evolution , which, however , seems to have surprised the Kremlin just a short distance to the repetition of the attacks. What it seeks is to establish a climate of terror , with the aim of provoking a middle of the Olympics as less difficult . In fact the first Russian reaction was to reassure the whole world on the deployment of the safety apparatus to protect the athletes and the public expected . The Olympics in Sochi are very heard an appointment by Putin , for their international relevance and the return of the image that can ensure their implementation. The Russian President has already proven to keep the image very Russian in conjunction with the sporting event , releasing prematurely from the prisons of Siberia activists for human rights group Punk " Pussy Riot " and the historical enemy , the former oligarch Khodorkovsky . At this time Putin seeks to dismiss world opinion by all attention from the fight against internal dissent and also to the Ukrainian question , trying to keep a low profile , which is not going to influence the judgment Olympic event , has already been severely challenged by the ' aversion to gays expressed by the Russian Government in tune with the Orthodox Church . They are , however, important issues , but that can be overcome in the interest of a terrorist attack in a big way , which can keep busy all the apparatus of Moscow. It should be noted that the city where the attacks took place , Volgograd , it will be a place of carrying out of the meetings of the World Cup of soccer , scheduled in 2018. The outline of the terrorists would respond to the draft of the Chechen leader Umarov , to bring the war to the heart of Russia, with the ultimate goal to create a Caucasus Emirate , in response to what is considered the Muscovite policy of occupation in the northern Caucasus . As you can see there are broad similarities with the formations Sunni who want to make Syria an Islamic country where the fundamental law should be the sharia. It would then be faced with a terror of the international Islamist able to spread their action even inside Europe , not surprisingly was explicitly accused the Al Qaeda network , capable of providing the ideological foundations and financial support of the project . The evolution of this situation has a very high hazard potential , which goes far beyond the contingent moment of the Olympics , and that caused the concern of NATO and the EU are ready to cooperate with the Russian authorities to fight the terrorism of religious , that could explode at any part of the West , as already demonstrated with the use of sleeper cells , virtually impossible to prevent. This situation could lead to closer collaboration between countries that are adversaries in the international arena , such as the U.S. and Russia, and could also facilitate an evolution of the diplomatic moves on the issue of Syria , where Assad , for Americans , is gradually representing a danger less and less with the passage of time , just passed by the overwhelming advance of Islamic radicalism .
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