Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 12 marzo 2014

If Russia moves forward in Ukraine

With the decision of the parliament in favor of the annexation of the Crimea to Russia , it is now awaiting the outcome of the referendum, which seems obvious and , therefore , ratifies the side of the people's will the loss of the territory of Ukraine in favor of Moscow. If the Western states were quick to declare the illegality of both the parliament's decision , that the same call the referendum question , this position does not seem to have any value , they have no effect on the process of integration of the Crimean peninsula to the Russia. There seems to be room for maneuver to get it back , unless you want to face a military confrontation , but the attitude of the Tartars is becoming more dangerous. The Asian ethnicity feels threatened by the Russian rule and this could lead to an escalation of terrorism, which could fall Russia into a nightmare on the type of the Chechen . To strengthen this possibility is the Russian attitude , which has not yet offered any assurance about the rights of the Tartars , this situation is , no doubt, a big unknown for the Russians, who do not seem to have considered well the implications of the threat tartar because taken by the developments of the situation in Ukraine. The Tatars , they also stressed that the process of division of the country of Ukraine is illegitimate and therefore their intention will be to boycott the referendum . With a desertion from the polls of the Tatar community , the value of the vote will be significantly less important , something that will not stop Putin, however, a signal is clear , especially if associated with the request for help to the western countries , particularly the U.S. and EU, which shared by the Tartars to the demands of the government of Kiev. The possibility of occurrence of a form of anti- Russian terrorism , by the Tartars , however, is still not immediate, as , on the other hand , seems more urgent, for the obvious international implications , the possibility that the Russian armed forces go beyond the boundaries of the Crimea and push forward again in the territory of Ukraine, as reported by "The Kyiv Post" . The demonstrations in favor of Moscow in the east of Ukraine, could encourage the repetition of the pattern Crimea , even in these areas , where the Russian community to denounce could be in danger because of Ukrainian Nationalists . Moscow would proceed so the annexation of other substantial portions of Ukrainian territory , military occupation zones , supported by the favor of the population. The territorial integrity of Ukraine would suffer incalculable damage that could prompt the West to react very heavy penalties , such as deploying NATO troops on Polish and Romanian border , ready to intervene in defense of the surviving part of Ukraine. This would be the worst case scenario with Western troops dangerously close , as never before, and Russian . If the diplomatic resolution is the most desirable , the evolution of events does not seem to leave room for this, and the increasing deterioration of the situation on the field.

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