Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 29 aprile 2014
Russia between nationalist forces and international isolation
The Russian policy of Putin , guided by nationalism , does not seem to flinch in the face of U.S. and European sanctions ; what emerges now in all its clarity is a strategy that aims to win back to Moscow, what has always been considered their living space , lost with the fall of communism. In recent years the Russian nationalism has always been very present in the political life of the country and was the key lever that allowed Putin to win the elections. If in the former Soviet bloc countries this phenomenon has always been closely monitored , it was not the same thing for the U.S., which have greatly underestimated , preferring to focus on other areas of the world. This explains the lack of preparation by which the White House has had to face , without a policy always unique and decisive , the Ukrainian question . Europe, too , bowled over by the Russian capital that has spilled over into old continent, is holding an ambiguous attitude of the evident infringement of the rules of international law. These attitudes, often hesitant , do not contribute to a rapid resolution of an issue and some of which the world and the global economic system would certainly need . The resulting uncertainty in the markets , dictated by the evolution of cooling of international relations, is the first tangible result of a state of affairs more and more worrying. However, Russia is the part that has the most to lose in the field of global competition ; hopes to rely on a partnership with China , at least in economic terms, because politically it is not possible , by theorem unshakable China's foreign policy , which provides for the prohibition of meddling in the internal affairs of states, does not seem to be supported by the exigencies of globalization. For Beijing, it is essential not to have any impact on economic with Western countries and , in addition, a Russia deprived of freedom of movement of their goods on the international stage is a counterpart not completely reliable, for the time and manner required by the production system in the context of globalization. If you were to get to block the financial assets of the Russian capital , after a moment of lack of liquidity in the markets , however, would find their own settlement , which could cause significant damage to the economy of Moscow. The same goes for gas and raw materials in the field of energy in the end throughout the West , including the eastern countries of Europe, amounted to about 10% , the overall share , the value of Russian import . The imbalances that see more imports from Moscow by Eastern Europe will be written off with a different import policy . At that point for Russia one can only think of a future seed self-sufficiency in a world that moves at a global level . Putin is likely to be isolated in the international arena , and locked up in a supranational entity , which wants to follow in the Soviet Union , which wants to build . If this issue were to occur it is credible that Moscow will become even more dangerous because compressed inside. Russian nationalism is not enough to have satisfied his desire for hegemony within what it considers its natural boundaries , it will also take the lead in the world, something very difficult in an international regime of exclusion. In this regard it should be stressed as extremely positive factor that the highest U.S. office , is held by a Democrat, who on this occasion , thanks to its care, is regaining lost international prestige in various events , first of all, the Syrian . Not many reporters these days are pointing out that the Republican candidate during the last election campaign, had put Russia in the viewfinder , returning to revive the glory days of the Cold War . The calm and deliberation , selected by Obama for handling the situation remains the most positive aspect of the whole affair , especially these days , where the danger of World War III has been called by many. In any case, at the moment we stepped back in time , when there was the Iron Curtain and the world, although no longer split into two single blocks , appears deeply divided . The power of Putin , in the internal , it is very firm , thanks to a system of rules and regulations , that was able to almost completely erase an opposition able to fight it from within the system . This aspect makes it even more difficult the resolution of the Ukrainian question and its possible extension to other areas that the Russians believe their property. Only diplomacy and restrictive measures , such as sanctions , can reduce Russia to reasonableness , but it is easy to predict that not just any list of names is not acceptable , but that it will take to get serious about finance and energy.
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