Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 18 giugno 2014
USA: do not repeat the scenario in Afghanistan Iraq
Given that the U.S. strategy in Iraq has obeyed electoral reasons, opportunities, and internal pressure, both before and with Obama, but that was unjustified and Bankruptcy, or see if it should be will be repeated in Afghanistan. The danger of a repetition of the advance of radical Sunnis could be repeated with a new relevance of the Taliban, even though they should not be able to regain power. Even now large portions of the territory of Kabul beyond the sovereignty of the state and a massive abandonment of the American contingent, as promised by the President of the United States, can only encourage, at least, the possibility of the recovery of the actions of extremists. To leave a stable country and ally, after having occupied militarily, it must have developed a defense of the territory and of the company by state agencies, which passes through a policy shared by the various political and social components of the nation. This did not happen in Iraq has left a nation in the misgovernment of an ally of convenience, but politically inept, who has squandered the U.S. effort, with the complicity of Washington obtuse. A complicity certainly unintentional, but which nonetheless has produced the opposite of the desired result. The case of Afghanistan, although different, is threatening to go down the same road. This possibility could help to create a further enclave of Muslim terrorism difficult to eradicate. The White House in front of some of the possibilities of action: the first is to deny the efforts made and abdicate its role in hope, illusion, this is replaced by others. In the case of Iraq could be Iran, but Tehran, which would have the material possibilities to do so, will never act alone to avoid retaliation diplomatic far more serious of the current sanctions. The second hypothesis is that for Washington to act alone, but the doctrine of Obama's foreign policy does not allow it: on the contrary had been high time the American interventionism could have hit the Sunnis with interventions from the sky, and then not solve political issues . The third option seems the most balanced but also the most tortuous operate a military action supported by other nations, is at the operational level, the political level. This event, which happens to be the only permissible by Obama requires more time, in a situation which, on the contrary, must be resolved in an urgent manner. These problems plaguing Washington officials that need to quickly find a balanced solution. At the same time, however, this urgency can afford to deal with the most experience the transition in Afghanistan. The involvement of various tribal members, but also the essential of neighboring countries, should be the model to follow in Kabul, albeit more slowly. Delaying the departure of U.S. troops, as fundamental to the Afghan government remains the primary condition to develop a strategy to avert the scenario of Iraq also on Afghan soil: a lesson not just, that if the White House and its primary tenant does not include , each project will affect international politics of American power.
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