Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 19 febbraio 2015

Athens asked the European Union for an extension of loans for six months

So Athens submitted its request for an extension of six months of the financial assistance program coordinated by the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. Greece requires that the terms of the bailout are not linked to payments. It is, at first sight, an attempt to buy time to meet the most urgent needs of the budget and, at the same time, develop a strategy that would allow to combine election promises, which led to the victory of the left, with the needs to find a solution to meet the payments, which would allow the scales to grow. The financial situation of the banking system greek represents the most immediate concern: the continued flight of capital from the Hellenic country, threatens to block a banking system already on its last legs, that can not finance the already few and precarious economic initiatives, which could give rise gross domestic product. To limit the damage of capital flight the European Central Bank has further raised the threshold of the loans, which have now reached a total of 68.3 billion. Some rumors have spoken of the intention of the European Central Bank to introduce stricter controls on how the circulation of capital of Greek banks, a kind of protection to avoid dangerous speculation due to excessive leakage of liquidity. Following this possibility would have been denied, and one reason may be the one not to create reasons for conflict with the executive greek, creating instruments that could be interpreted as invasive of the sovereignty of the executive of Athens. The developments of the issue also worry Washington, which has called for reaching an early agreement between Greece and Brussels, not to create further disturbances in the markets. What I worry about most in the US, are the possible consequences for Greece and the implications on the euro, in a time when the US economy despite being in recovery, is always in need of outlets on the European market. In previous meetings Greece had requested a review of the primary budget surplus to 1.5%, which is much more favorable than the current 3% forecast gross domestic product in 2015 and 4.5% for 2016. However, it would seem that the official request that Greece submitted there is a clear commitment on this topic. The Greek Government has to resolve the question of how to release the funds in the plan of European aid, which amounted to 7.2 billion for the previous year and 10.7 billion loan from the IMF for the current year. This liquidity would be secured to the conditions before the victory of the left, that the people greek officially refused delivering the country to the current government. There is therefore an absolute necessity for the government in Athens to find a balance with the conditions already established and signed by previous governments. The situation can not remain much longer in the current stalemate, not to leave the euro, opening unpredictable scenarios, Greece must increase its gross domestic product, which, then, will allow him to repay the debt, although with times certainly different from those provided by the Troika. Conversely you could open the doors of default, with the first consequences of not paying the people greek salaries and pensions, but at that point could come to the aid foreign powers do not like the West. The crux of the problem is whether the international political will weigh more than economic.

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