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mercoledì 8 luglio 2015

The nuclear deal is necessary for the development of Iran

Hope to reach agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue within a short time is motivated by the need to revive an economy on which weighed too long economic sanctions. Iranian society in the hope of improving their condition is very strong, it is a very dynamic social fabric, ready to welcome the long-awaited development, despite the presence, often intrusive, religious authorities. The nuclear deal is a need first of all for the country of Iran, but also the US and especially Obama, they need to close the game quickly. Tehran also would authorize inspections at military sites, but in return he would ask the embargo on the import of arms, question that Washington does not like, because it has to address criticisms of the Saudi and Israeli allies, who with such a concession could further raise the voice. In any case it is important to reach a conclusion as soon as possible which results in the end of economic sanctions, because the benefits will not be immediate. Although Iran has prepared a long time to return to the market and to welcome new foreign investments, the effects of these economic initiatives can not be seen in the short term. In a first phase the Iranian currency should revalue, thanks to the export of raw materials, the country holds the fourth world's oil reserves and the third gas, and thus allow the flow of goods and services, also fine from abroad. Most important is the provision of foreign investments that create jobs, whose chronic shortage forced more than half of young people to unemployment. It is, in the majority, of potential skilled workers, able to be employed in the service sectors, even if the factor of increased stimulus for growth may not be that, in the initial phase, oil. In addition to the estimate that concerns some 40 million barrels already stored and ready to be placed on the market, the authorities are investigating new systems contracts to attract Western companies, capable of increasing the earning capacity of the industry. The sanctions have reduced the productive capacity of the extractive industry, but the goals are to get to be able to produce about five million barrels by the end of this decade. Oil combined with the release of frozen funds in foreign banks, should allow, also thanks to a technological upgrade, the revival of the infrastructure sector, which would also allow the turning to strategic sector of transport and logistics. This flow of investments and work should also lead to the appearance of the phenomenon of inflation, view, in this case, as a positive aspect, because caused by a higher productivity and a greater amount of liquid circulated in the system, to which should pay an increase in gross domestic product and therefore the improvement of the living conditions of the population. As we see the expected changes relate to different scenarios, that they will not generate internal tensions and invest very delicate matters such as human rights and trade legislation. To attract, in fact, foreign companies massively, the judiciary will have to adapt to the presence of companies from other countries and with the need to access in a reliable and fast to potential disputes that will occur. Even the attitude too pervasive religious authorities will have to be changed enough to not be a hindrance to economic development, which still must be respectful of the nature of the Iranian theocracy. Hand in hand will be strengthened the security of the country, especially against the threat of the Islamic State: Iran's interest to defeat the terrorists of the Caliphate, which arrived, earlier, almost to the borders of the country, to stabilize the region. The biggest problems, from the diplomatic point of view, are given by the relations with the Sunni countries and with Israel, which sees the return of Iran in the international arena, as a threat to the current situation, both political and economic. On this front, Iran will have to work to find ways of living together they could do make it necessary to change the paradigms on which it was based until now the foreign policy of Tehran.

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