Kurds and Turkey, the unknowns in the fight against Islamic state

The recent successes of the army composed of Kurds and Yazidis, aiming at the liberation of the city of Mosul, one of the main strongholds of the Islamic state in the country of Iraq. The forces led by the Kurds have now occupied the nearby town of Sinjar, which is considered the base for the attack in Mosul. This operation was supported, and, therefore, agreed with the air force of the coalition which is led by the United States, which operated from above, facilitating the task of the land forces, which work against the caliphate. The advance of the Kurds has been confirmed by the president of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which emphasized the utmost importance of the conquest of Mosul, also in terms of the creation of a security zone growing for the Kurdish region of Iraq. The evolution of the strategy to win Mosul has therefore undergone a change compared to the original plan to conquer the city directly and failed by the defense of the Islamic state. Currently it has been chosen a more gradual approach, using, of course, the conquest of Sinjar, which aims to cut supplies to Mosul to facilitate the capitulation. At the same time the Iraqi army is advancing the objective of the reconquest of Ramadi, a city of about 450,000 inhabitants, whose fall, which took place last May, was considered one of the worst defeats for the regular Iraqi forces. If this is the picture that is evolving in the fight against the caliphate in Iraq, we need to do some political considerations, assessing the intentions of Turkey, especially in view of its proximity to the border of Ankara's territories in which there is the advance of Kurdish . With the election result achieved favorable, Erdogan has now firmly in control of the state apparatus, which could take an even more targeted in the fight against Kurds. This goal marked the electoral victory of the Kurdish president, in an instrumental way to do focus attention on the state of crisis in the economy of the country and its isolation internationally. However, the refugee emergency constituted an opportunity, allowing Turkey to boost relations with the European Union, because of the role that Ankara is playing during the reception of migrants, which can also become a kind of barrier to limit the flow migratory. A further opportunity to play an important international role consists of the G20 summit to be held in Antalya. The turkish government wants to present a plan for Syria, which involves sending a ground force of 10,000 actual army of Ankara, already in mid-December, with the aim of stabilizing the situation in the country Syrian. The official intention is to take back the forces of the Islamic State and to create a buffer zone, which can afford to take in refugees; this solution is acceptable to the European Union, which would be seen solve, at least in part, from which a problem can not get out. However, the proximity to the theater of operations by Kurdish forces, creates embarrassing questions about the real intentions that move the turkish government, for which, the priority remains the containment of any possible expansion Kurdish and contrast to a possible birth of a state Kurdish independent. For Washington it is a question difficult to answer: not the Kurds, in fact, committed on the ground against Islamic militants, the objective of containment of the Caliphate would not have been possible, given the initial inconsistency Iraqi army, d ' Instead, the participation of Turkey in the field, against the Islamic Republic would constitute a sort of balance of NATO to Russia, a factor that could become decisive in the negotiations on the future of Syria without Assad. The White House, however, must not make the mistake of thinking of sacrificing the reasons of the Kurds, which did not offer the necessary guarantees during the recent repression in Turkey. The Kurds, to the war against Saddam Hussein offered a decisive cooperation of the armed forces of the Pentagon, proving decisive for the fate of more than a battle. Obama and his government will have to give a display of great diplomatic skills both against opponents, Russia and Iran, which the allies, Turkey and the Kurds, to compose a puzzle characterized by growing uncertainty.