Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
mercoledì 23 dicembre 2015
The advance of the Iraqi army takes place thanks to the role of the Sunni tribes
The
attack on the Iraqi army against the Islamic state to regain Ramadi,
could have a major impact on the conflict against the caliphate. Ground
troops Army of Iraq, supported by the action of Western air forces, if
successful repel towards the western part of the country the Islamic
fundamentalists, who would see considerably reduced the territory over
which they exercise their sovereignty. Besides
a military backlash, it would be a success can bring down considerably
the morale of the troops and Islamist become an important propaganda
weapon against the Islamic state. The
strategic importance of the city of Ramadi lies in short which is
located with respect to the capital, Baghdad, which is just 100
kilometers. Any
consolidation of positions, in a military sense, the Caliphate so short
a distance from the center of power in Iraq, could have allowed the
military actions can impair the capital and the government's position,
sending the country further into chaos. Military
operations to regain Ramadi represent the culmination of the strategy
launched by time to regain the territory in question; for
some time, in fact, the Iraqi army is engaged aa cut the supply lines
of the forces of the caliphate to leave isolated the city center to
shoot. The
direct consequence is represented by a small number of militants of the
caliphate engaged in defending the city center and government complex,
from which the Islamic state exercised its power over the population. Through
the conquest of the city passing the turnabout of the conflict, at
least on the soil of Iraq, after the Caliphate had won about a third of
the country. One
of the factors which contributed to the rescue of the regular forces
can be identified in the different role played by the Sunni tribes, who,
after an initial approach, have distanced themselves from the Islamic
state, no longer ensuring social consensus, based more aversion to government of Shiite matrix, that the extremist vision of the caliphate. This
element was crucial even beyond the necessary military contribution:
one of the objectives of the Obama strategy is just the greatest
possible involvement of Iraqi citizens in the fight against the Islamic
state to erode the base of popular support. In
this perspective, the involvement of the element Sunni tribal is
decisive, since these are the only political structures with a certain
influence in the areas invaded by the caliphate. Without
the positive element tribal Islamic state would not have been able to
expand and it is no coincidence that the change in attitude of tribal
structures marks the start of the rescue of the regular army of Iraq. A
possible claim of Iraqi ground forces would be, so even a victory for
the United States, that have been trying to promote this solution,
without embarking on a dangerous personal commitment on the ground. This
victory could become the model on which to base the final war on the
Islamic state: where the troops of land is played by Muslim staff
assisted by aircraft and western backed by popular support from the
tribal structures; certainly
to aid in a complete process, act on the full involvement of the Sunni
part in government decisions by removing the minority Shi'ite political
supremacy in the country. This
path is not easy, the rivalry between the two religious groups does not
help and resist waste of bad relations in the time of Saddam, when the
parties were reversed; but
there is to specify that the manner of the government of the Islamic
State, where the application of Islamic law was too extremist, through
episodes of absolute cruelty, changed the orientation of the Sunni
tribal groups, who have broken the agreement with the caliphate. Although
in the future to treat a just redistribution of power it will not be
easy this way is, in the immediate, the only one that can ensure the
retreat of the Islamic state in the country of Iraq. After
defeats dangerous, who nearly led the troops of the caliphate until
almost bordering Iran, the American strategy, therefore, albeit with a
considerable delay, could prove to be a winner. However
the defeat of the Islamic state is still far away, because its
sovereignty over part of Iraqi territory is still significant and is
complemented by that exerted on the Syrian. But
from the perspective of the military entered the war on the side of
Russia in Damascus could compress the operation of the Islamic State in a
territorial area increasingly restricted resulting in an operating
margin reduced, both in terms of strictly military, and from that logistics on the supply and handling of oil necessary to finance through illegal trafficking. The
activity against the caliphate should not end with the possible
achievement of the military, but must get ready to prepare a future
structure can not allow replication of the taking of power by the
fundamentalist organizations, acting on political subjects and
structures Social involved.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento