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mercoledì 23 dicembre 2015

The advance of the Iraqi army takes place thanks to the role of the Sunni tribes

The attack on the Iraqi army against the Islamic state to regain Ramadi, could have a major impact on the conflict against the caliphate. Ground troops Army of Iraq, supported by the action of Western air forces, if successful repel towards the western part of the country the Islamic fundamentalists, who would see considerably reduced the territory over which they exercise their sovereignty. Besides a military backlash, it would be a success can bring down considerably the morale of the troops and Islamist become an important propaganda weapon against the Islamic state. The strategic importance of the city of Ramadi lies in short which is located with respect to the capital, Baghdad, which is just 100 kilometers. Any consolidation of positions, in a military sense, the Caliphate so short a distance from the center of power in Iraq, could have allowed the military actions can impair the capital and the government's position, sending the country further into chaos. Military operations to regain Ramadi represent the culmination of the strategy launched by time to regain the territory in question; for some time, in fact, the Iraqi army is engaged aa cut the supply lines of the forces of the caliphate to leave isolated the city center to shoot. The direct consequence is represented by a small number of militants of the caliphate engaged in defending the city center and government complex, from which the Islamic state exercised its power over the population. Through the conquest of the city passing the turnabout of the conflict, at least on the soil of Iraq, after the Caliphate had won about a third of the country. One of the factors which contributed to the rescue of the regular forces can be identified in the different role played by the Sunni tribes, who, after an initial approach, have distanced themselves from the Islamic state, no longer ensuring social consensus, based more aversion to government of Shiite matrix, that the extremist vision of the caliphate. This element was crucial even beyond the necessary military contribution: one of the objectives of the Obama strategy is just the greatest possible involvement of Iraqi citizens in the fight against the Islamic state to erode the base of popular support. In this perspective, the involvement of the element Sunni tribal is decisive, since these are the only political structures with a certain influence in the areas invaded by the caliphate. Without the positive element tribal Islamic state would not have been able to expand and it is no coincidence that the change in attitude of tribal structures marks the start of the rescue of the regular army of Iraq. A possible claim of Iraqi ground forces would be, so even a victory for the United States, that have been trying to promote this solution, without embarking on a dangerous personal commitment on the ground. This victory could become the model on which to base the final war on the Islamic state: where the troops of land is played by Muslim staff assisted by aircraft and western backed by popular support from the tribal structures; certainly to aid in a complete process, act on the full involvement of the Sunni part in government decisions by removing the minority Shi'ite political supremacy in the country. This path is not easy, the rivalry between the two religious groups does not help and resist waste of bad relations in the time of Saddam, when the parties were reversed; but there is to specify that the manner of the government of the Islamic State, where the application of Islamic law was too extremist, through episodes of absolute cruelty, changed the orientation of the Sunni tribal groups, who have broken the agreement with the caliphate. Although in the future to treat a just redistribution of power it will not be easy this way is, in the immediate, the only one that can ensure the retreat of the Islamic state in the country of Iraq. After defeats dangerous, who nearly led the troops of the caliphate until almost bordering Iran, the American strategy, therefore, albeit with a considerable delay, could prove to be a winner. However the defeat of the Islamic state is still far away, because its sovereignty over part of Iraqi territory is still significant and is complemented by that exerted on the Syrian. But from the perspective of the military entered the war on the side of Russia in Damascus could compress the operation of the Islamic State in a territorial area increasingly restricted resulting in an operating margin reduced, both in terms of strictly military, and from that logistics on the supply and handling of oil necessary to finance through illegal trafficking. The activity against the caliphate should not end with the possible achievement of the military, but must get ready to prepare a future structure can not allow replication of the taking of power by the fundamentalist organizations, acting on political subjects and structures Social involved.

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