Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 30 marzo 2016
The Palmira conquest allows Assad to political changes at the international level
The
conquest of Palmyra, as well as being important from a military point
of view, because it will allow the Syrian army to extend its action
against the Islamic Republic toward regaining of Raqqa, represents an
important milestone in the assad strategy to enhance its image, even in the eyes of Westerners, as the caliphate containment function. The
army of the Islamic state had conquered the city of Palmira, famous for
its archaeological remains, in the last year, arousing great fanfare
for the treatment of Roman ruins, many of them destroyed. Palmira
had become the symbol of culture fall into the hands of fundamentalists
crude, representing a kind of metaphor for the fate that could touch
the West. The
conquest of the city of Palmyra and its archaeological site, one of the
most important in the world, are a big half in favor of Assad and his
Russian allies, to establish itself as deeply committed to the fight
against Islamic terrorism. In
the future the achievement of Palmyra is a kind of insurance on the
future of Assad, who has now virtually averted any possibility of exit
from the political scene the future of Syria and, on the contrary,
should see him as the star of the future structure of Damascus. In
fact, his military advance aside any possibility of a political
transition without his presence, as requested by the opposition at the
Geneva table. This
scenario is primarily a defeat for those Sunni states such as Turkey
and Saudi Arabia, who had worked to have a full influence on the Syrian
country, especially in optical anti Iran. For
the United States and Europe this result, although not positive, it
represents the present state of things, the lesser evil, especially when
you consider the priority of the fight against the caliphate, to
achieve without a personal commitment on the ground of Western military. Precisely
because of this desire Assad is trying to apply for accreditation to
Western countries and the United States itself, as one of the few forces
capable of defeating the armies of the Islamic state. Of
course without the commitment of Russia the fate of Assad he seemed
marked, but it probably was also to Syria which could be conquered
almost in its entirety by the troops of the caliphate; instead
the dictator of Damascus should further strengthen its position thanks
to the advanced toward Raqqa for the reconquest of the city, which
currently is a stronghold of the Islamic state. But
before the Syrian offensive aimed at regaining the oil fields are
located just 30 km from Palmyra, which represent a considerable source
of revenue for the coffers of the caliphate. The
Russian presence continues to be a key factor in the victories of
Assad, according to some analysts only one-third of Russian military
aircraft is back at home and the aviation action in Moscow, joined the
ranks of Assad on the ground is the combination determining to defeat the caliphate. The
rest was the same plan of Obama, who is working in Iraq for the
presence on the ground of Iraqi regular troops and Kurdish, but Syria
has not been able to have the same result for the poor military
preparedness of the formations formed by Assad opponents , in reality, often contemporary goal, both of the caliphate troops, who of those of Damascus. That
the Assad success is very relevant as shown by the number of those
killed in the battle of the Islamic State of Palmyra, it estimated at
more than 400 units, which represents the biggest loss for the caliphate
in a single battle. Though
for now the Assad successes mean for Western defeat of the Islamic
state, it is impossible not to think about what will happen in the
future, when you will have to decide on the future of the Syrian country
is not unreasonable to suppose that Damascus wants to enforce its rights, this also supported by Moscow and Tehran, which eventually will have played a decisive role in the tide of the war. What
promises to be a long and laborious negotiations, which must also take
into account the needs of the Kurds and the fate of the same opponents
of Assad, which should be guaranteed, not only insurance own safety, but
also a political role at the table negotiations. Always with the looming threat of disappointed represented by the Turks and the Saudis, and in general by the Sunnis.
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