Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 27 aprile 2016
The European Union on the verge of dissolution
There
may be a series of coincidences such as to create a negative political
situation to endanger the survival of the European Union, at least in
its present form. The
current historical moment, in fact, seems to be the most dangerous to
the supranational organization in Brussels since its creation. The
European Union faces a number of challenges, which appear difficult to
overcome, if already taken individually, but added together they appear a
very difficult obstacle to overcome, without adequate corrective to
Community policies as a whole. The
first challenge is the possible exit of Britain: if, on the one hand,
the economic effects in the long run, might even prove to be positive
for Brussels, the London abandonment political backlash would be able to
open a number of fronts able to favor especially the eurosceptic parties and address on the English via other countries. Then
there is the internal problem connected to the output by the European
Union of Great Britain, but not shared by Wales and Scotland, which,
then, would open their exit from the UK, encouraging similar behavior of
regions aspiring to achieve its sovereignty the most striking case is the Catalonia. Although
these territories are opposed to an exit from Brussels, their eventual
secession from the states of origin would represent a strong factor
altering the internal balance of the union, capable of generating new
conflicts between the center and the periphery. Then
there is the return of the greek case, Athens is still struggling with a
difficult debt situation because of choice, mainly the German
Government, to apply the country a highly restrictive policy, which
prevents an economy enough to repay debts . The
suffering of the greek people, which is the culmination of what is
required from Berlin is the realization of what the current European
Union has departed from its founding principles, which were to bring to
the center the growth of welfare of citizens, rather than that of banks
and finance. This
factor has led to considerable doubts about the quality of Europe, even
in those social sectors who believed in the institution of Brussels,
weakening it further. But
still not enough: the issue of refugees and the division of their
assistance has created deep disagreements among states, jeopardizing the
Schengen agreement and creating a rift, increasingly unbridgeable,
between the southern states and those of the north and of 'east,
where there were intemperate stance towards refugees, especially from
countries ruled by right-executive, who have already reported to the
diminishing respect for civil rights. The
last case, that of Austria which has deployed its police in anti-riot
gear on the border with Italy keeps track of how relations have
deteriorated, perhaps up to a point of no return. Scrolling
through all these situations and analyzing them even superficially, it
seems difficult not to predict their development in the most negative
sense for the European Union, which in the case, will inevitably revise
several aspects of your organization. A
first reaction, for example, the attitude of the Eastern countries,
already threatened by some states, is to cut its contributions in their
favor; it
must be recalled that the Eastern nations receive in financial aid from
Brussels more than they help to give the total budget of the union. A
coercive form of this kind is certainly desirable for those who do not
fulfill their duties in the division of charges and does not respect the
social rights of its citizens. Certainly
this option will raise disagreements, but it could also open up a
solution to a smaller Europe, and built on the basis of shared rules and
not really determined by convenience accessions. He
will insist on maintaining a common institution of the many countries
with little or nothing in common, if not the geographical location, it
is only worthwhile to those who want to take advantage of the large
availability of labor at low cost and have access to a wider market; but these characteristics alone are not enough to support a project that needs to be more ambitious. This
scenario must be the occasion for a re-discussion of the European
Union, based on its rules and its objectives, and it must begin, first
of all, by its founding members; more
than the creation of a two-speed Europe, based on economic values, you
must create a multi-speed on political, social and civil: a kind of the
starting mechanism to arrive at a Union only where there is full sharing
initial
values, restored by a deep analysis on the behavior of individual
states, who can predict ua range of sanctions whose point must be the
exclusion Union and its advantages. The
only way to create a supra-national institution capable of governing
the contingent difficulties in an egalitarian way for the acceding
States, without failure or disadvantages. Hence,
finally, you will leave for the continent political union, conversely
the future is the dissolution of a political Europe, which will be at
the end of the single currency and a return to pre-existing
fragmentation, totally unsuitable for the challenges, yet tougher, that the evolution of globalization will force the entire world.
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