The scenario North Korean

The United States, in accordance with South Korea, have begun to give practical demonstrations of military power in Pyongyang, North Korean flying over the country with strategic long-range bombers. It is an explicit warning against nuclear demonstrations, that North Korea has made through the tests, especially the last one which produced a power never hitherto achieved. Make an overflight over the country North Korean equivalent to balance the threat of Pyongyang of long-range missiles to arm with nuclear warheads to hit the allied countries of the US and the US itself. Washington has sought to understand the communist regime to be able to carry nuclear warheads directly to the address of Kim Jong-Un. It is a step that represents a significant element of novelty, that goes well beyond the joint military exercises with Seoul, which, usually, are the demonstration of the most usual strength. At this stage, however, the White House, he wanted to show, giving a very explicit meaning to the decision, to be able and willing to operate by itself against any enemy, if threatened so explicitly. It must be remembered, that any attempt by Pyongyang diplomatic conciliation, for a moratorium on nuclear tests North Korea has always failed, and the American action is intended to demonstrate precisely that the situation has exceeded the limit. However, hand in hand, proceeds also the American diplomatic activities towards other countries, especially the major powers and the United Nations. The goal in this field is an agreement on new and stronger sanctions against Pyongyang, which is shared mainly by China, which is still the country closest to North Korea, despite the many differences. The location of Beijing, in effect, turns out to be the most delicate, especially for the geographical proximity with the Asian nuclear power. The two countries share a border line and the danger for China is not only to get so close to the border of nuclear weapons ready to use, because the fear of triggering a humanitarian tragedy can produce a high number of refugees ready pouring on its territory. This outcome is all too underestimated by the Chinese government, who knows the tactics of Arab dictators, able to regulate the flow of migrants to embarrass Europe. For now, Kim Jong-Un has shown they do not want to use this instrument of pressure, preferring to give a demonstration of the atomic power of his country. But the possibility of a humanitarian crisis, dictated by contingent reasons because of the economic conditions of the country, may also occur independently. Beijing finds itself at a crossroads, while condemning the nuclear test by North Korea, does not intend, for now overplayed his hand, although it could obviate this necessity, by adopting, with respect to possible sanctions, a behavior not too hard . In the past, in fact, from the Chinese border was allowed to move goods and goods that could alleviate the condition of the people of North Korea, along with luxury goods for the ruling group. On the effects of sanctions is necessary, then, to reflect on the real ability to obtain the desired effects. Is shown, that to achieve tangible effects, long times are needed to allow the effects of the sanctions to exert the desired pressure; whereas in this case the need to bend the North Korean regime to adopt a different policy in atomic weapons, request a shorter time. The problem also lies in the internal situation of North Korea, which seems to be far from stable: the repeated demonstrations of force should be well read in a twofold sense: both outward to obtain aid and subsidies, in exchange for hypothetical stop nuclear activities, both internally to reiterate, through the atomic power supremacy on the party and the country. Seen in this way the state apparatus of power to Kim Jong-un could reveal a crisis quite extensive, hypothesis reinforced by the many purges that have been learned in the recent past. This framework could lead to glimpse ample space in which they can move any attempts to overthrow the regime. For global security may be the best solution, but it is not sure that China can accept a united Korea, which would fall the American orbit on its borders. There is also the issue of whether South Korea would be able to manage the costs and difficulties of a unification. Alternative to this scenario could be, for North Korea, a destiny as a nation of China satellite; from the economic point of view in Beijing this solution may agree, either because it has definitely all the financial and economic means to manage an eventual political transition, which would still be in a form of government characterized by the single party, and for the great abundance labor, certainly not qualified, but cheap for Chinese enterprises. In this case, however, must assess the willingness of the United States to the realization of such a scenario, that could never occur without an agreement on the destruction of nuclear warheads from Pyongyang. The multiplicity of solutions creates the current deadlock, which still provides the greatest benefits to Kim Jong-un, encouraged by the upcoming US elections: but for the next president, whoever he will be, the dossier on North Korea will be one of the most important to solve .