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mercoledì 4 gennaio 2017

With Trump President will be the alliance between the US, Russia and Turkey

Relations between Erdogan and Obama have further deteriorated after the New Year's bombing, because of allegations of the president turkish outgoing administration of the White House to support the Islamic state. This is not new reasons contrast, these charges are not recent, but the fact that Erdogan raises the more intensely right at the end of Obama's term, it means that the president turkish intends to emphasize the gap with the occupant of the White House outgoing, to ingratiate himself with the Trump favors. Tactics Erdogan seems clear: settle the conflict with the United States, thanks to the conditions created by the same Trump during the election campaign, when in his statements, you never hidden sympathy for the president turkish. Erdogan is essential to re-establish good relations with Washington, to eradicate the Kurdish danger. For the Obama administration the Kurds have been a privileged partner, thanks to their military efforts against the caliphate lent directly on the ground, a factor that has prevented the US to deploy its army; relations between the Kurds and Washington, Obama era, have been so very tight and this was one of the reasons, certainly not the only one, who contributed to the worsening of relations between Turkey and the United States. Certainly Obama and his entire administration, they did not like the lack of respect of the rights and regression in the confessional sense of the Ankara government, it became less and less democratic, and if Washington does not stop at all the reports was for the membership of the country turkish Atlantic Alliance. Further deterioration of relations between the two governments has occurred concurrently with the attempted coup turkish, which was followed by reactions not very warm in favor of President turkish, and from European countries, which the United States itself. Conversely Trump has expressed, during the election campaign, even doubts about the CIA's involvement in the coup turkish, recovering therefore the allegations of Erdogan to Obama. It has never been proven but it is served at Trump to be accredited to the government in Ankara. Meanwhile, just as a result of the deterioration in relations between Turkey and the USA, Russia has entered the vacuum left by Washington and, despite little favorable conditions, such as the Russian military shooting down by the Turkish anti-aircraft, it has forged relationships increasingly important with Ankara. For Moscow, the strong performance of relations with Turkey is an element within a larger project, which was aimed, first, to break the international isolation in which was the Russian country and, consequently , returning to play a major role on the international scene. In this scenario, Syria is a decisive factor for Russia is paramount that the Assad regime will become a sort of ally dependent on Moscow, for Turkey, the role of Assad is essential to avoid the danger of the emergence of a Kurdish state right on its borders. These two conditions were strongly negative for Obama, who, however, has done little to restrict them, with the result that Russia has once again become a super power. At this point we have to check what will be the attitude of Trump, who, on the plane of the efforts of the US, seems to want, ultimately, continue one already begun by Obama: a gradual withdrawal from the world policeman role. However, the preconditions for international action to Trump, against Russia and Turkey seem to want to be greater empathy, so that could constitute a total new scenery, with the three countries of certificates of a line of harmony and cooperation. Where they can bring these developments it is difficult to predict, although a strengthening of Turkey in the region, could result in the emergence of a middle power with a substantial power, capable of trying to impose their own ambitions and so going to disrupt the emerging balance . On the role of Russia we have already said: for Putin not be opposed by the White House is an advantage in terms of freedom of movement, that could give benefits even unexpected for the Kremlin. The point is what the US can gain from this possible scenario; if Trump is the primary US economic interest you can think of their own beneficial agreements in the economic field, but the consequences of a change in relations with Russia could lead to a worsening of the political cost than with Europe, where German interests are still predominant. Trump for administration may be a balancing act, in a multipolar environment difficult to manage, which can damage the same economic objectives that the new president has set.

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