Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 4 gennaio 2017
With Trump President will be the alliance between the US, Russia and Turkey
Relations
between Erdogan and Obama have further deteriorated after the New
Year's bombing, because of allegations of the president turkish outgoing
administration of the White House to support the Islamic state. This
is not new reasons contrast, these charges are not recent, but the fact
that Erdogan raises the more intensely right at the end of Obama's
term, it means that the president turkish intends to emphasize the gap
with the occupant of the White House outgoing, to ingratiate himself with the Trump favors. Tactics
Erdogan seems clear: settle the conflict with the United States, thanks
to the conditions created by the same Trump during the election
campaign, when in his statements, you never hidden sympathy for the
president turkish. Erdogan is essential to re-establish good relations with Washington, to eradicate the Kurdish danger. For
the Obama administration the Kurds have been a privileged partner,
thanks to their military efforts against the caliphate lent directly on
the ground, a factor that has prevented the US to deploy its army; relations
between the Kurds and Washington, Obama era, have been so very tight
and this was one of the reasons, certainly not the only one, who
contributed to the worsening of relations between Turkey and the United
States. Certainly
Obama and his entire administration, they did not like the lack of
respect of the rights and regression in the confessional sense of the
Ankara government, it became less and less democratic, and if Washington
does not stop at all the reports was for the membership of the country
turkish Atlantic Alliance. Further
deterioration of relations between the two governments has occurred
concurrently with the attempted coup turkish, which was followed by
reactions not very warm in favor of President turkish, and from European
countries, which the United States itself. Conversely
Trump has expressed, during the election campaign, even doubts about
the CIA's involvement in the coup turkish, recovering therefore the
allegations of Erdogan to Obama. It has never been proven but it is served at Trump to be accredited to the government in Ankara. Meanwhile,
just as a result of the deterioration in relations between Turkey and
the USA, Russia has entered the vacuum left by Washington and, despite
little favorable conditions, such as the Russian military shooting down
by the Turkish anti-aircraft, it has forged relationships increasingly important with Ankara. For
Moscow, the strong performance of relations with Turkey is an element
within a larger project, which was aimed, first, to break the
international isolation in which was the Russian country and,
consequently , returning to play a major role on the international scene. In
this scenario, Syria is a decisive factor for Russia is paramount that
the Assad regime will become a sort of ally dependent on Moscow, for
Turkey, the role of Assad is essential to avoid the danger of the
emergence of a Kurdish state right on its borders. These
two conditions were strongly negative for Obama, who, however, has done
little to restrict them, with the result that Russia has once again
become a super power. At
this point we have to check what will be the attitude of Trump, who, on
the plane of the efforts of the US, seems to want, ultimately, continue
one already begun by Obama: a gradual withdrawal from the world
policeman role. However,
the preconditions for international action to Trump, against Russia and
Turkey seem to want to be greater empathy, so that could constitute a
total new scenery, with the three countries of certificates of a line of
harmony and cooperation. Where
they can bring these developments it is difficult to predict, although a
strengthening of Turkey in the region, could result in the emergence of
a middle power with a substantial power, capable of trying to impose
their own ambitions and so going to disrupt the emerging balance . On
the role of Russia we have already said: for Putin not be opposed by
the White House is an advantage in terms of freedom of movement, that
could give benefits even unexpected for the Kremlin. The point is what the US can gain from this possible scenario; if
Trump is the primary US economic interest you can think of their own
beneficial agreements in the economic field, but the consequences of a
change in relations with Russia could lead to a worsening of the
political cost than with Europe, where German interests are still predominant. Trump
for administration may be a balancing act, in a multipolar environment
difficult to manage, which can damage the same economic objectives that
the new president has set.
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