Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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venerdì 31 marzo 2017
The difficulties between Brussels and London for Europe output
With
the delivery of the letter that starts the English exit procedure by
the European Union, you enter into the practical aspects that will have
to be a matter of agreement between the two sides. These agreements primarily political, but then they will have real effects on individual subjects reason to bargaining. One
of the points where, for now the parties are more distant, is that of
arrangements to adjust the output from the union and the future
relations between the two sides: the UK would prefer to deal with the
two aspects simultaneously, while Europe first question to define the output and then adjust future relations. It
is understandable that the Prime Minister trying to implement a
strategy that can minimize end-cons, trying to agree with the output
conditions and future relationships, linking them inextricably together.
This attempt, however, is opposed by Brussels, which wants to leave the least possible space for negotiation in London; In
this regard it should be noted that, on the European side, the
parliament will vote on a resolution at the end of the negotiation, and,
among its powers will have the right to veto. This means that the European elective assembly will reject the hypothetical agreement. So
to avoid a negative vote by the parliament, which would lengthen the
time, negotiators will have grim a satisfactory agreement for both
parties. The
main intention, from Brussels, is to keep with the UK understandings
regarding the defense and the fight against terrorism, although this
seems complicated already for lack of cooperation between the secret
services of countries within the ' Union. On
the rest of the subjects the hope is to reach an understanding agreed,
especially to prevent the United Kingdom become a state whose legal
regime governing trade relations is the rules of the WTO, in this case
from both sides could be applied customs duties on incoming goods. If
this happens, despite the disadvantage it would be for both parties to
be most adversely affected would be the United Kingdom. Certainly a stiffening of the two parts could also cause non-cooperation in defense matters. One
aspect that London holds much has the functionality of its institutions
and financial organizations, that without access to the European
market, would see their greatly reduced operation. One
possibility to operate in Europe is similar to the Swiss company,
organizing their union activities, thanks to a permit obtained from the
European Commission, but without an agreement that satisfies Brussels,
this possibility is virtually ruled out. A
very difficult question to be resolved are the contributions to the
European budget that London has pledged to match up to 2020, ie after
the exit from Europe, which should take place in 2019; These
contributions are estimated at about € 60 billion, a substantial amount
that London will try not to pay, or to a lesser pay, encountering the
natural opposition of the union, which has already budgeted English
contributions. Another
aspect on which Brussels does not compromise the will of London to
forge separate agreements with the states of the union members, thus
avoiding the Community decisions; Brussels
will try to put this ban in the agreements, but if it does not succeed
it could always provide for penalties for both the member states, and
for the United Kingdom, through the tightening of duties. Finally,
there remains the Scottish question, if the Edinburgh parliament should
decide for the referendum and detachment from London were to get the
win, Brussels admission of Scotland should follow the procedure valid
for any other state, but the perception is it
could open a preferential way, as a region of a country formerly
belonging to the union, and thus formally already in Europe, even if it
will not create friction with London. Perhaps
the best thing, even for Scotland would be to wait until the end of the
negotiations to open the front of the referendum, to be lighter on a
deal that promises already difficult.
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