Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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martedì 19 settembre 2017
Israel makes pressures on the US for a revision of the Iranian nuclear agreement
Iran's nuclear problem returns to be central in the international scenario. The
issue, which was resolved by the long diplomatic talks, was raised
again by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who during the
meeting with US President Trump urged the United States to substantially
amend the agreement or even revoked. Certainly
Trump's predisposition to these solutions is very high, given that he
was already openly opposed to the agreement in the electoral campaign
and during his presidency the aversion to Iran was clearly demonstrated
by the country's rapprochement US
forces to the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and, in general, to the
bloc of Sunni nations, traditionally opponents of the major Shiite
country. Trump's
executive affirms that the deal has failed, but it is unclear whether
this failure is due to its practical consequences, which have allowed
the Iranian country a good economic growth, thanks to the effects of the
withdrawal of sanctions or whether the fear Tehran can become a military power even military. One
of the issues the White House finds most dangerous is the possibility,
for now not established, that Iran has provided nuclear technology to
North Korea and has also made significant progress towards
miniaturization of the nuclear bomb. Surely
if these suspicions were to be verified, the Iranian position would
worsen a lot, but for now these conjectures are just suspicions, which
are not even used against Tehran. What is attributed to the ayatollah regime is, above all, the attitude held in Syria in support of Assad and Hezbollah. Implicitly,
the proximity between Iran and Russia is also not considered as
positive, increased with the support of the allied allied Assad and
developed with consistent trade agreements. In
this context, the Israeli pressure on the US to restore the existing
situation before the Iranian nuclear agreement has a strategic
motivation to aim to undermine the atomic danger coming from Tehran,
which has always been considered a concrete threat to Tel Aviv and 'Iranian activism at Israeli borders active through the constant threat of Hezbollah. The
Israeli government has moved autonomously in the Middle East, by
storming unofficial but in great collaboration with Jordan, Egypt and,
above all, with Saudi Arabia and other gulf monarchies, essentially the
Sunni bloc, to create an alliance capable of containing the advancement of Iranian influence. But
this diplomatic work is not considered sufficient without substantial
support from the United States, which can only be achieved through a
revision, even one-sided, of the Iranian nuclear treaty. Netanyahu's
task is, however, far from easy: meanwhile within the United States the
voices favorable to maintaining the agreement are few and are very
influential also within the State Department. In calculating costs and benefits, the former are judged too high; the
price to be paid in political terms would be too high and already the
first retaliation warnings had begun in Tehran when the covenant was no
longer respected by Washington. Moreover,
the United States was not the only signatories to the agreement, and
the defeat of it would also have diplomatic consequences with other
countries that have signed the agreement. What
would be a drastic reduction would be the US credibility, unable to
honor an international agreement only for the change of presidency. However,
the absolute closeness between Trump and Netanyahu can be a dangerous
and concrete possibility of an alteration of the agreement, also
welcomed by the Sunni people. The
Trump administration, unlike Obama's, is far from being equidistant to
Shiites and Sunni, and seems to be more inclined towards the latter. Netanyahu's
activism thus fits into this business that seems favorable to Tel
Aviv's policy and objectives, but is likely to become a new factor in
the global scenario, with the Iranian country again in the West-West and also a brake on greater democracy in Iran.
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