Russia towards military maneuvers

Military maneuvers, which the Russian army carries out with the armed forces of Belarus, concern the Baltic countries and those already belonging to the Warsaw Pact. Moscow and Minsk used a quantity of men, just under 13,000, a figure from which observer controls would start, in accordance with international agreements in force. The worst concern is that in previous cases of these maneuvers, Russians then invaded Georgia and the eastern part of Ukraine in addition to the Crimea, transforming military exercises into authentic strength tests. At present, this event could occur in Belarus, but Minsk's attitude towards the Kremlin is a great collaboration, within a very narrow alliance. Moreover, the main reason for the military offenses mentioned above was to avoid a possible approach to the Atlantic Alliance of invasive territories. The Belarusian regime does not have such intentions, and Minsk's previous mining refusal on its territory of Russian missiles does not seem sufficient to a possible invasion. The reason for these military maneuvers seems rather to be sought in the will to demonstrate to the Atlantic Alliance its strength. It does not seem to be secondary to the fact that relations between the USA and Russia remain difficult, despite the improvement that Putin had expected with Trump's election. Despite the will of the new US president to improve relations with Moscow, the Kremlin had to find that the military and diplomatic apparatus did not bend at the will of the White House and retained its autonomy of judgment, which remains negative towards the Russian government. If the Russian position in eastern Ukraine, Georgia and the Crimea is a violation of international law and a threat to the Atlantic Alliance, for Moscow the presence of the Atlantic Alliance in the countries that belonged to the Warsaw Pact and the Baltic States , which surround the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, is perceived as a lack of respect for their respective areas of influence. For this reason too, the Belarusian territory would be chosen as a theater of maneuvers, which is a sort of direct demonstration and provocation against Brussels. According to some hypotheses, then, the actual employees would be much more than those declared and this could preclude a Russian force action. In fact, Moscow speaks only of a defensive exercise to test its reaction in the event of a Western attack. Certainly, the only possibility that this hypothesis concretises is only that of an attack on the Atlantic Alliance, however, according to the majority of military analysts, this would not be possible because Brussels's interest in the region is to maintain positions, the other would be if Russia attacked a member of the Atlantic Alliance, in that case, as it is well known, it would break the clause of the Treaty of Accession, which imposes the defense of every member state under military attack. But it is a hypothesis that Russia does not want it to happen because it still does not have enough strength to compete with the Atlantic Alliance, but the Kremlin has accustomed international public opinion to a tactic of provocation with the sole purpose of raising the tension and the sense of instability where these provocations occur. Lately the raids that Russian aviation have had on the Baltic countries or the Ukrainian border have provoked a growing alarm, not only in these countries, but also in Poland, so as to solicit a greater presence of defense battalions and armaments. Moscow's intention was clearly to provoke a growing alert in some members of the Atlantic Alliance to test the mood with which Brussels tackled the problem. It remains to be hoped that during these exercises will not happen an unintended accident, but it can cause a worsening of relations between the West and Russia.