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martedì 21 novembre 2017

Israel and Saudi Arabia, official allies

Having made official the collaboration between Israel and Saudi Arabia makes visible a relationship that already existed in an unofficial manner. The two states have the main enemy Iran, which they fear for regional expansion, which is likely to alter the equilibrium of the Middle East. Arabia has stated that the only problem with Tel Aviv is the Palestinian question, for the rest of the country believes that the allies are reliable allies; furthermore, the ongoing collaboration was already on a military, strategic, and well-known basis; the fact that it becomes more effective marks a novelty in the diplomatic field, where the alliance between the Jewish state and the major Sunni nation, then Muslim, is sanctioned for the first time. On the international level, one can not fail to note that this is the case with Trump's presidency in the United States, clearly opposed to Tehran, so much that it wants to revoke the agreement on nuclear power, so hard-pressed. The deep aversion to Iran has thus facilitated a new alliance, which with Obama probably would not have been possible. For Arabia, this is religious supremacy and competition in the energy market, while Israel's predominance is the question of its national security. Tehran has done everything to gain a leading role in the Middle East, in the Syrian question and in the struggle against the Islamic state, initially funded by the Saudis. Israel, within the new coalition, would have the function of preventing Iranians from using Hezbollah militia as avant-gardes of their strategy, while the Saudis would try to prevent Iraq from developing too much rooted Shiite power. For Saudi Arabia, it might repeat the pattern that led to intervention in Yemen, hindering, that is, every Shiite religion connected with Iran. If an official collaboration between the Israeli state and the main Muslim country could be a positive novelty, the reasons for this link do not encourage good prospects on the international stage: because Iran has come closer and closer to Russia, with which shares the interest in maintaining Assad's power, while trade ties with China have tightened since the sanctions against Tehran have dimmed. The Middle East, therefore, is back in the center of the world political scene in a clear and decisive manner and contributes to be another factor in distance between Moscow and Washington. From the point of view of the Palestinian question, Saudi Arabia has stated that the problem is the only element of division from Israel and that it will strive to resolve it. Saudi diplomatic action is thus desirable for the solution of the problem, which can not be ignored since the birth of a Palestinian state alongside that of Israel. If this does not happen the most extremist Palestinian movements, but not only those, could enter the Iranian orbit, because Tehran had good reasons to stand up as a Palestinian defender and use the instrument in an instrumental way, also in the light of links between Hezbollah and groups Palestinian. If the issue is considered fundamental to Muslims, because it is well felt in the Arab countries, especially in the popular strata, it seems reasonable to assume that Arabia has not underestimated the issue, even for the reference role that the Saudi country always wants to more in the Sunni world, not only religious but also political. A failure to resolve the Palestinian problem would be a serious image damage to the Saudi monarchy. At this point, however, it is necessary to evaluate the conduct of the Tel Aviv government so far, consistently in procrastinating the solution of the problem in a methodological way, in order to favor settlements of the colonies. With an alliance with Saudi Arabia, will this behavior continue, or can Israel sacrifice its will to ground the Palestinians to protect themselves against the Iranian country? From Tel Aviv there is no sort of reassurance on a rogue in the attitude towards the Palestinians, and everything suggests that tactics will remain unchanged; Arabia could consider the secondary Palestinian problem facing the Iranian threat and postpone its solution but this will only aggravate the overall situation in the region - just what the Saudis wanted to avoid.

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