Saudi Arabia could be the next nuclear power

The visit to the United States of the Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman is likely to become an important date on the world balance and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The central question concerns Iran's position in the Middle Eastern chessboard and also in the world; the leading role assumed by Teheran in Syria, in Iraq and also in Yemen has long alerted the emonarchy of the Persian Gulf and, in general, the Sunni-led states. The contraposition between the two main doctrines of Islam has long since passed from the theological to the political dispute, with broad reflections in the field of international politics; the Syrian conflict has caused the affirmation of the Islamic State, which was an instrument of the Sunni states to gain positions in the region. Iran has reached with the Western powers an agreement, particularly unpopular to the Sunni monarchies, on the regulation of the uses of nuclear power by Teheran, with limitations on the enrichment of uranium to avoid a military development of the main Shiite country. The main guarantor of this agreement, even more than Europe, was Barack Obama and therefore the United States he administered; with the coming to power of Trump the situation has radically changed: if Obama saw in the agreement the lesser evil, continuing to maintain an extreme caution in relations with Teheran, the new tenant of the White House has started a different attitude towards Iran , marked by greater hostility, which brought the Gulf monarchies closer together, especially Saudi Arabia. Trump's view of Iran is the most negative one, which has been common to US policy since the 1980s and which identifies Tehran as a dangerous opponent of the United States and its allies, first of all Israel, but also of Arab states Sunnis. With these sentiments Trump, even before his election, has always opposed the nuclear treaty considering it too favorable for Iran, because it granted him advantages also with respect to the neighboring Sunnis. The main purpose of the mission of the Saudi prince is only to obtain the technology for the construction of nuclear power plants for civil purposes, but also to obtain enriched uranium to equip themselves with nuclear weapons in order to balance the Iranian power. What is looming, therefore, is a sort of balance of terror in the Islamic version. The question takes place practically in conjunction with the change at the top of American diplomacy, which will be occupied by Mike Pompeo a character perfectly aligned with the positions of Trump about the aversion to Tehran. A further coincidence is the eve of the meeting that US experts will have in Berlin with Europeans, French, Germans and Britons for the discussion on the revision of the Iranian nuclear agreement; the American intentions are to elaborate a more rigid revision, by imposing greater constraints on the atomic development program and the end of ballistic missile trials. The European attitude, until now, has been absolutely against the will of Trump and it is possible that a break between the US and Europeans will occur, which would result in a further departure from the allies. However, the supply of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia could be a weapon of blackmail against the Europeans, who would find themselves in the difficult position of wanting to respect the word given to Iran and the threat of a new atomic power on the planet. It will also be interesting to see what will be the reaction of Israel, which is now a de facto ally of Saudi Arabia, but which would have a very near Arab nuclear power. If there is a revision of the treaty in a unilateral sense only for the US, the Iranian reaction can only come and the first step can only be the adoption of new sanctions, which will trigger a permanent instability and favor less movements progressives in the Iranian country. The real risk is the opening of a new world front that can not but involve the main powers: if the US will be deployed with Saudi Arabia, Russia will be alongside Iran and the international political and economic balance will be even more compromises.