Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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venerdì 13 aprile 2018
Europe wonders about sanctions against Iran for Syria
There is a conflict within European countries about the attitude to be taken with Iran. There
are two issues, and even if they seem unrelated to each other, they are
a problem on relations with Teheran, but also with Washington. Iranian
involvement in the Syrian war alongside Assad, and therefore all of his
misdeeds, requires European countries to give a strong diplomatic
response to the Iranian country: the solution found would be to impose
sanctions on Teheran, however, the reason for the discussion is how serious these measures should be. The
question is related to the nuclear agreement that Iran has also
stipulated with the European Union, Germany, France and the United
Kingdom. The
fear is that, because of the sanctions for the presence in Syria,
Teheran has a negative reaction also on the nuclear agreement,
especially for the pressure coming from the USA, which, with President
Trump, seems to want to withdraw from what agreed. What
Europeans fear is that putting new sanctions on Iran could be a sort of
excuse for Tehran to make the treaty ineffective and pave the way for
Iranian atomic military development. This
scenario would be the worst possible at this stage, characterized by
tensions between Americans and Russians, because the Iranian front would
open up officially. In
fact, Trump's behavior is influenced not only by the preconceptions of
the White House, but also by the pressures of the Israelis and Sunni
monarchies, traditional opponents of Tehran. The
concrete risk is that of nuclear proliferation and a state of permanent
tension, with Iran that could claim its right to nuclear research, also
for military purposes and a dialectic consisting of threats of armed
intervention, and adequate responses, such as it had already happened before the signature on the agreement was reached. In
order to avoid the return of a balance of terror on a multipolar scale,
and therefore more difficult to control, Berlini, Paris and London have
proposed sanctions against Iran with a scheme of selective measures:
the reason is not to cause a tightening of
Tehran and, at the same time, demonstrate to Washington that, in this
way, one can be strict with Iran without inducing him to withdraw from
the treaty. Despite
the disagreement with some European partners, the proposed measures
concern not the Iranian state, but its officials believed to be directly
involved in the Syrian conflict. If,
on the one hand, it is clearly an operation carried out demonstrating
all the goodwill possible towards a country that has in any case been
responsible for massacres against civilians, on the other hand,
precisely this caution could be mistaken for weakness from Trump and, therefore, provide him with the opportunity to continue the project to boycott the nuclear treaty. The
real danger is that, in addition to the US president, even the Iranian
government take advantage of these sanctions to renounce the treaty,
considering, too, that the expected benefits in the economic field have
been hitherto greatly reduced. In
other words, Teheran could judge that it is more convenient to move
towards becoming an atomic power and, at the same time, reinforce
political and commercial relations with the enemy countries of the
Americans like Russia, but also China, considered more advantageous in a
strategic sense. anhe
at the expense of the possible economic benefits, for now not arrived,
that the end of the sanctions by Europeans and Americans should have
guaranteed. It
will be necessary to wait what the Teheran government will consider
more important: if the geopolitical or economic aspects, certainly
without tangible benefits, it seems obvious that Iran favors its
international ambitions.
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