The US declares the trade war to Europe

The European Union and the United States are destined to a hard confrontation, which could inaugurate a new season about the relations between the two international actors, characterized by a real commercial war. In this litigation, Europe is united with Canada and Mexico, countries traditionally allied with Washington, but this point did not allow Trump and his executive to recede in undertaking a confrontation that could soon degenerate from commercial matters to broader topics, like the international arrangements. The increase in duties provides for an increase of 25% for steel and 10% for aluminum. At the base of Trump's distorted reasoning, there is the conviction that a high import rate can be reflected on the structure of the US industrial sector, without considering the benefits of American industries that use these materials for their processing, putting on the market a finished product with high added value. The error is to consider almost only the trade balance as a yardstick for the health of the economy, a distorted view that does not consider the costs and benefits induced by the introduction of duties, especially against allied subjects, both from the economic point of view, rather than the general one of a political nature. One of the explanations provided by the US Secretary of Commerce is that imports do not allow the development of a capable national industry and this is reflected in national security, one of the fundamental factors being the capacity to produce armaments. This argument appears to be specious, especially if the concept of defense is extended to the global plan of the alliance, necessarily including also the Atlantic Alliance, where armaments sharing would be necessary not only from the point of view of use, but also of design and of production. However, one of Trump's goals is precisely to increase the sale of armaments to the allies, to compensate for the US economic efforts carried out in terms of defense policies outside the American borders. To evaluate this assumption it must be remembered that the American president may have some reasons for requiring greater financial effort from the allies for military spending, but to demand it indirectly by imposing duties risks undermining the demands, because this provision affects a broader economic spectrum. and invests the relationships of natural collaboration between international subjects. In fact, the European Union has already announced retaliation against some American products: this will make it inevitable a reciprocal excuse to apply new duties, which will not affect the respective relationships. The sum referred to is about 6,400 million euros, which coincides with what is derived from the sale of steel and aluminum to the USA; European duties on American products should affect goods for an amount of equal value. The application of duties on the American side has caused, as usual, when speaking of Europe, non-unique responses from the European members and this will nullify the act of opposing the United States; in fact, Germany has proposed a policy of incentives to the US to avoid the duties, while France has taken a more rigid attitude by opposing a refusal to deal under the blackmail of Trump. The most probable possibility is a very hard confrontation, because what distinguishes the United States on their position is the application of the nationalist spirit, on which the intention is not to grant alternatives to the European states, despite the American statements still based on the possibility of negotiation. The reality is that Trump intends to continue on the path of firmness at any cost, but the political consequences could be harmful, first of all just for the American President.