Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 8 agosto 2018
Trump's failed policies
If,
with North Korea, Trump's tactics, threatening and then obtaining a
result, seemed to have taken effect, Iran did not go the same way. Not
even with Pyongyang, since Kim Jong-un's promises seemed untrue and the
North Korean country did not begin promised denuclearization. Tehran
had made it clear from the start: Iran is not North Korea, and although
the Asian nation is experiencing a very difficult economic moment, it
has refused to re-discuss the already signed nuclear treaty. For the administration of the White House it is a diplomatic defeat, which announces the failure of American foreign policy. North
Korea has the perception that Trump has made fun of it, while the US,
withdrawing from the nuclear treaty unilaterally, ratifies their
unreliability at the international level. The effects of US credibility are to fall further and further down, altering relations with historical allies. What
is being created is an ever greater distance between the two sides of
the Atlantic, which could seriously endanger established situations,
such as the Atlantic Pact, which risk being overwhelmed by an impromptu
policy and outside the canons of good diplomatic sense. This
is also because Trump intends to oblige the signatories of the
agreement to adhere to its dictates, through direct pressure on
companies in those countries, with the explicit prohibition of operating
in the US if they continue to maintain business relations with Tehran. This
pattern seems to be repeated even in the policy on tariffs, but even in
this field the reaction produced by China seems to be difficult to
contrast, because it aims to directly hit US companies that generate
huge gains thanks to cheap Chinese labor. The most important example is Beijing's action against Apple, which is required to share earnings in China. For
many American companies, the Chinese market represents the second
largest area after the domestic market, and it will be interesting to
see what their reaction will be when they are crushed between the wishes
of Washington and the retaliation of Beijing. Returning
to the Iranian question, if the intention of German car manufacturers
seems to be to abandon the Iranian market, not to jeopardize the
American one, already in danger for the possible inclusion of duties,
other nations, through their executives, a official position, therefore, and not the initiative of a single firm, reject American taxation. In
this sense it is important to reject the government of London, which
remains the main ally of the US, to adapt to the wishes of Trump. The
European Union will try to support companies that have signed
commercial contracts with Iran, proving to be alternative to the United
States and also to be more reliable internationally, respecting the
agreements signed. At
this moment the White House can receive the support of important
allies, but more marginal than Europe, but, above all, its policy seems
to be counterproductive, both to its international blazon, and to the
economic aspect. The
reasoning of the trade balance, which must always be active towards
each commercial partner, without considering the benefits induced
resulting, for example, from the convenience of importing some products
that are not burdened by incoming duties, seems to be applied also to
international politics, where it is important to impose the vision of
the American president without any mitigation, to take into account the
opinions and the role of the allies. The
isolation that Trump is imposing on the United States will soon require
a price to pay and it will certainly not be low: the only hope is that
the Americans will already realize it at the next electoral events.
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