The possible international consequences of the Hong Kong crisis

The evolution of the Hong Kong protests leads directly to a crisis between the United States and China, worsening bilateral relations, with possible direct commercial consequences. The American parliament, in fact, is in the process of approving a law concerning respect for human rights in the former British colony. Without the guarantee of respect for human rights, the US will sanction Hong Kong and its economy which enjoys a special status with Washington. This law provides, in fact, a periodic review of this particular status, connected to economic advantages, in the case of the violation of human rights and also sanctions against the authorities of Hong Kong and China, in addition to the prohibition of sales by US companies of products that can be used in repression of demonstrations, such as rubber bullets or electric guns. Beijing reacted in words very hard to the eventuality that this law comes into force, but in practice the threat has been limited to unspecified sanctions, showing that it did not foresee the intensity of the American initiative. China has long accused the Americans of fomenting the protests in Hong Kong, but such an interference in their domestic politics has never happened and despite the initial lack of preparation, Beijing cannot be limited to passively suffer Washington's action; however, the Chinese government is in a very uncomfortable situation, Hong Kong has a media spotlight that cannot allow the repression that China has inflicted on Chinese Muslims with impunity, even if the intention to resolve the issue would be in that sense. For China it is undoubtedly a new situation, because it does not have full freedom of action on a territory, which, although with a different order, is part of its sovereignty. It seems impossible not to notice how Beijing has badly managed the situation before the protests as well as in the current phase, a sign of an improvisation that denotes a real inability to move outside the borders of mainland China, protected by the rules of the current dictatorial system. The situation could only be resolved through dialogue, but this would mean a sort of collapse of the central government in the face of other opponents present on the continent and could even open concrete possibilities for the area of ​​dissidence. Then there is the economic question, which until now has been the first thought of the Chinese rulers: their dilemma is whether to sacrifice economic growth to political solidity or vice versa. If the West, which is the rich part of the planet, has so far not too disputed the repressions of the Muslims, with Hong Kong it will not be able to have a similar attitude and the negative spiral that risks triggering, as a result of sanctions and censorship against China , will be able to pose the problem for Beijing towards which side to orientate. Can the situation of a China that maintains its order on Hong Kong, through violent repression, but at the same time not be sanctioned in the economic aspect be credible? This situation seems impossible, also because it is impossible for the United States not to take advantage of such an occasion where Beijing has slipped by itself. However China is acting, it will lose something and in Washignton they are well aware of it: for the USA, the story of Hong Kong can be a way of reducing China, especially in the West, where Beijing, through massive investments, is trying to undermine the American influence. On the other hand, it is also true that the Western democracies take note that the Chinese counterpart is governed by a system totally incompatible with their values ​​and postpone a repression in a territory that until recently was a democracy must lead to reasoning and reflections that can go beyond economic convenience. Through these themes, the United States will be able to put pressure on Western and especially European states to implement a strategy to combat China internationally. This is why Hong Kong will mean a lot to global balances.