Obstacles to Ukrainian peace

 With his approval ratings plummeting and the self-imposed economic hardship of tariffs, US President Trump must seek to boost his standing with some international political results. The goal would be to secure some sort of agreement on the Ukrainian war, if not a definitive peace, then at least an initial truce that could allow negotiations to progress appropriately. Signs of optimism are being seen from many quarters, from the US negotiators themselves, to the Finnish and Turkish leaders, and to some extent even from the Hungarian president; however, the Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom has stated that there is no peace text with Kiev, only Ukraine's surrender. The plan agreed upon between the US and Europe would contain nearly 80 percent of the points presented, with the possibility of a change in martial law to allow elections to be held. The biggest obstacle, however, remains Russia's desire to secure the entire Donbass region. For Putin, only this condition would allow him to achieve the closest thing to victory, even without this conquest being achieved militarily. This objective is irreconcilable with the common feeling of the Ukrainian people, who, in a recent poll, expressed 75% against withdrawing from land, Donbass, which they consider part of their national territory. This is the basis of Zelensky's refusal to give in even to American demands, which see the cession of Donbass as the primary reason for an end to hostilities. Washington is considering an alternative solution, which would envisage Donbass becoming a demilitarized zone, without the presence of Russian and Ukrainian troops. Kiev could accept this model only with the presence of a foreign military presence in Donbass; this option is rejected by Moscow, which could only accept the presence of its own police and National Guard in place of the Russian army: a solution totally unwelcome to Kiev. A further point of contention is the plan to freeze the current front line, as jointly presented by the European Union and Ukraine. For Russia, still too far behind in its westward expansion, this solution would be tantamount to admitting defeat. Despite the massive military effort and the large number of casualties—around a million Russian soldiers are estimated—the Red Army is struggling and advancing slowly, while forecasts for the Russian economy for 2026 openly point to a possible collapse. Then there is the problem of Kiev's willingness to secure post-war insurance, whenever and however it will come. For Ukraine, the best solution would be membership in the Atlantic Alliance, capable of averting any possible new ambitions from Moscow. However, Russia categorically rejects this solution, so the Ukrainians are demanding the adoption of a mechanism equivalent to Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance, even outside of the Atlantic Alliance itself. Kiev needs concrete guarantees after its independence and sovereignty, signed by the US and Russia in 1994, were not respected in the Budapest Memorandum, just as the agreement establishing that Russia could never invade Ukraine was not respected after Kiev returned all its nuclear warheads to Moscow following the dissolution of the USSR. Then there is the question of Russian assets in Europe, which, according to Brussels, should be used for Ukraine's reconstruction, and which, conversely, the US would like to control: the EU's plan is for Kiev to join Brussels in 2027, and this fact, which the majority of Ukrainians approve of, could prove a necessary obstacle but difficult for the Kremlin to accept.