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venerdì 15 marzo 2013

Lebanon should not be infected by the Syrian war

The fear of the overrunning of the Syrian war, not only about Israel in Lebanon became increasingly strong fears that the civil war in Syria face slip back into the land of the cedars in his sad past. The deployment of the Lebanese army in the streets and squares of the town, assisted by riot police, shows well the state the state of tension that runs through the country. The awareness that Hezbollah has learned during the chaos of the neighboring country to increase their arsenals and can also think about using them to reopen a season of fighting in Lebanon, is a threat felt in a concrete way. The purpose of the fundamentalist movements are those of the Lebanese align with the drift of the Arab Spring, where fundamentalist movements took power. The main difference is that they arrived at the government through elections, which seems difficult to happen in Lebanon, the only way, therefore, to establish a government close to theocracy is that of arms. But the attainment of power is not the only purpose that drives Hezbollah, Lebanon is actually on the verge of an internal explosion because of old conflicts, never surpassed, the religious and political nature, which are mixed with friction of years old and that have their roots still in the civil war, which has severely battered the country in the last century. Currently Lebanon appears divided into two forces, separated from support from the opposition or to the dictator of Damascus, so as to send in Syria quotas opposing fighters, which are flanked, respectively, for Assad, and is the case of Hezbollah, which follows the Iranian directives, and the rebels, as some parties of the March 14 coalition. These forces, paramilitary basically, you are already facing in Syria, but precisely for this reason, they may also give life to fighting on their soil of origin. It is unclear whether the Lebanese army to avoid or reduce this potential conflict, because even within the regular armed forces of Beirut, are present, as well as in civil society, representatives of both sides. One of the possible scenarios, in the unlikely event that restart the internal conflict, is the repetition of the need for a foreign peacekeeping force, able to perform the role of a buffer between the two sides, as was the case with the use of the Italian military. The UN should worry about the time of this case, the strategic position of Lebanon, requires special attention to prevent a new civil war, at a particularly tense for the Middle East, with the threat that Israel emptive military action against Iran , for too long now. An extension of the Syrian conflict in Lebanon, it is not the same as the cases, even dangerous encroachments of the fighting in Turkey and Iraq. Ankara is able to govern the internal situation, which is in no danger of altering its balance, while, conversely, the Iraqi situation, where there is an intensification of Al Qaeda, is more exposed to lead in the country further instability, but the impact on international geopolitics, is, at present, to a lesser extent a crisis in Lebanon. In the territories of Lebanon on the border with Syria, there is are also cases of refugee camps, often illegal and illicit source of income for many Lebanese, home to fugitives from the civil war of any orientation. Within these persons, in most devoid of any control, may lurk exponents potentially hazardous, can contribute to increasing the danger of lead to instability in the country. In addition, this mass of refugees, introduced in the country without a prearranged schedule, is putting a strain on the ability of the Lebanese emergency management, creating other potential cause for alarm for the social security of the country. The danger of heavy alteration of the conditions of coexistence between local communities and refugees is a real possibility, from which it may from far more serious consequences. But the attitude of international and Western countries that the UN seems oriented to overlook this whole series of problems, which, however, require a rapid and well directed, especially not limited to humanitarian aid. The decision not to intervene in Syria, only produced a war that has been going on for two years, which for now is limited to the Syrian territory, but an enlargement in Lebanon could mean, then a further expansion in areas, such as the Israeli even more sensitive to regional balance and also worldwide. The need to prevent this infection should require those responsible to quickly process action plans agreed with the authorities in Beirut, for measures to be put in place as quickly as possible.

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