Politica Internazionale

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martedì 28 maggio 2013

The supplies from Russia to Syria unlikely to cause more than a diplomatic incident.

The implications of the Syrian War likely to go far beyond the already critical of the Middle East. The constant attention that Russia poses to the maintenance of the Assad regime, could result, in fact, even more serious consequences on the international stage, going to further disrupt the delicate relations that currently exist between Moscow and Washington. The Putin's decision to provide regular forces Syrian anti-aircraft systems IMMEDIATELY caused the reaction, for now verbal, Israel. The decision made in Russia, despite Moscow are well aware of dangerous reactions, is dictated by the need to avoid the risk of being declared a no-fly zone from the United States, on the model of the activated during the Libyan war, such a decision would deprive the only undisputed strength of Assad, the weapon aviation, which has so far to make a difference with the weapons and the strength of the rebels; through absolute control of airspace and the subsequent use of air power, the regime of Damascus was able to avoid military defeat and substantially retain power in most of the country. The anti aircraft equipment supplied by the Russians would be similar to S-300 surface-to-air systems technically sophisticated, able to power intercept planes or missiles. For now, the United States did not comment on Russia's intention, although it is clear that the measure was addressed primarily Washington, however, the installation of these systems are concerned, in a more immediate, even Israel, engaged with their aviation to prevent the fundamentalist militia Hezbollah is being supplied directly from the arsenals Syrians, with arms shipments to Lebanon blessed by Tehran. Tel Aviv has already hit on Syrian soil columns of vehicles that transported towards the southern Lebanese weapons stolen from the deposits of Assad. With the possible installation of anti Russian aircraft, the Israeli raids would be more complicated. For this reason Israel has explicitly threatened Syria and Russia indirectly, of the steps that will be taken to ward off these supplies. The tactic of Tel Aviv, in this case, is obliged: to destroy the anti-aircraft equipment before they are installed, to do what Israel can prevent access to the Syrian territory of the Russian aircraft, triggering a dangerous escalation, both diplomatic and military or wait that the material is delivered and take action immediately after and above before installation and commissioning. With this option, the comparison between Israel and Syria would remain limited and would not be directly involved other international actors, in this case represented by Russia. This option is true, but only would avoid the direct involvement of Moscow, preserving the scenery from a possible military response, but certainly not a diplomatic crisis type, which, would inevitably also involved Washington. Another option that Israel might use could be represented by a preemptive strike against Syria to force Damascus to withdraw from accepting the Russian supply. This scenario would follow the actions already carried out by Tel Aviv to prevent the supply of arms to Hezbollah and would have an impact to some extent smaller than the previous options, because the justification would always be that military actions would not be directed against Syria but against the Islamic militias , Damascus, on the other hand, could not answer because the main objective is to preserve its air force, decisive against the rebels, but surely defeat in a confrontation with the Israeli air force. Russian intentions are still the ones to strengthen the Syrian regular forces, basically to not allow that Damascus could pass under the influence of U.S. allies and this region is likely to worsen relations between Moscow and Washington, which could no longer find any point of understood in a box that is experiencing the moments that are more complicated since the end of the Cold War.

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