The future of the euro will be decided in Karlsruhe

What you will bring local at the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, is the process that will determine the fate of the single European currency, at least in its present form. The complaint, lodged among others, the sister party of Chancellor Merkel, the Christian Social Union, concerns the question whether it is legitimate for the German law, stabilize the euro by buying securities from countries in crisis, the measures taken last year by the European Central Bank, chaired by the Italian Mario Draghi. The operation of the ECB, however balanced by ironclad constraints imposed on countries in crisis, sought to suspend all non-liquidity in the continent, not to disrupt permanently the state of the productive fabric, but in fact the measure has only slowed the process of impoverishment, highlighting the need for well other interventions. Of this state of things in Germany, behind the fear of inflation has raised a wall of red tape, it was the real beneficiary, especially with regard to short-term results, reaching production data and marketing certainly not contemptible. Of course the condition of the German public debt puts Germany in a state virtuous, who is afraid of being compromised by the involvement in the procurement, through the action of the ECB, of securities from countries affected by high levels of debt. However it is these countries are the prime market for German products and the medium, and even more long-term, the results Teutonic exports can not be compromised by the imposition of a credit crunch even more pressing. With elections looming, the German courts will avoid waiting for the verdict of the election results, not to spoil the political campaign going on, but it must be said, that the deployment that has formed against the purchase of securities of countries in crisis is a training cross, which goes from the right to the extreme left. This reflects the fear that grips the majority of the German people about the fears of rising inflation, which would lose value to the wealth of Germany. As a result of these feelings is the increased number of people, which is still a minority, which is seeking an escape from the euro in favor of a return to the Deutsche Mark, needless to say that such a decision could put out by the EU its majority shareholder, also While many refer to the English solution, with London, where there is the pound as its currency firmly within the institutions of Brussels. A hypothetical return to the mark could untie Berlin by the financial problems of the euro, but would submit the original currency to a significant appreciation, which would penalize exports, not only at the continental level, but also at global level, pulling back the share of production and generating, probably an economic crisis. The production structure of German, as opposed to the English one, which bases its strength on finance, is centered around the manufacture and prosperous thanks to massive exports. A possible exit from the euro would also reduce the overwhelming political influence that Germany exerts on the EU, lacking the tools to be able to exercise. The fact remains that a euro zone without Germany would be considerably weakened in the financial part, but would, in the immediate greater room for maneuver which, if exploited well erode a substantial share of its market to German industry. For these reasons, it remains difficult to predict a negative opinion by the court in Karlsruhe, even if the pressure on the judges is remarkable and this does not exclude a negative verdict. In this case, it may not occur exit from the euro, but the political pressure generated by the consequences, including the possible bankruptcy of Greece and Spain in particular, would lead to consequences that could hardly leave intact diplomatic relations with Berlin.