Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 19 giugno 2013
The plight of the negotiations for Afghanistan
The triangulation USA, Afghanistan and the Taliban to bring peace to the country continues to suffer setbacks, which do not facilitate a positive solution. In the last episode, the Afghan president has suspended the negotiations for the bilateral security agreement with the United States. Behind this decision there would be the disappointment of the highest office in the land for the announced resumption of talks between the representatives of the Taliban and the U.S. administration. All this is happening in a climate overheated by continuous attacks against NATO forces, at the unwillingness of the proclamation of the cease-fire by Islamic fundamentalists. The United States appear in a cul de sac, caused by their decision to withdraw troops, a decision opposed by Hamid Karzai, conscious of the difficulty of maintaining control over the territory with the only regular troops, but also the strategy which involves negotiations to the bitter end with their stronger enemies. The Taliban also refuse to recognize the authority of the Afghan president, as the expression of a pro-Western government and illegitimate in their eyes. The tactics of the Islamist fighters was to accept and reject, at times alternating peace talks, in a game for a grueling regular diplomacy as the American one, which, in fact, did not get any results yet. Evidence are the attacks and ambushes against Western troops, which show a contrary intention to peace, but the Americans are forced to play on two tables at once to exit from the quagmire of Afghanistan. On the one hand talks with the Kabul authorities need to agree on a honorable exit from the scene and at the same time try to ensure continuity to the Afghan administration, on the other hand, it is now evident that without some form of agreement with Taliban The first part of the theorem American can not come true. This declaration of surrender makes the fundamentalists particularly strong in their positions, especially in that they do not want to recognize the president who sits in Kabul. This last step is the real weak link in the chain, that without which you can not achieve any results. The lack of communication between the Taliban and the Kabul government forces Washington to seek solutions that are impassable, which allow fundamentalists to gain time to regroup for the moment in which NATO troops will leave the country. If this is true the fate of the state painstakingly built by the United States is already marked a return to the Islamic theocracy, with all the corollary of the consequences, including the aspect of international terrorism, which were the reasons for the war undertaken. The United States is, therefore, in front of a fundamental choice: to preserve in some way the country or abandon him to his fate, wasting the long series of efforts. It is understandable that American diplomacy is not to omit any attempt, but it seems clear now that the talks with the Taliban will not get out of anything relevant, precisely because of the attitude shown so far to extreme tactics of the other party, which did not no tangible progress. For the U.S. the only way out would be to expand the international involvement in the protection of the country, even in new superpowers like China and India, which have a vested interest in not having Islamic fundamentalism to power on its borders, this could also be an interesting international political laboratory to develop new forms of understanding for a more complete and extensive transnational cooperation.
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