Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 12 giugno 2013
The U.S. has not taken a decision on the Syrian issue
The concern that is experiencing the White House for the Syrian military advance of the regular forces is the daughter of yet another error of judgment made on the Arab countries. As for the Arab Spring, when Washington assured its support to the rebels, foreshadowing a scenario where you could say models of government closest to the Western democracies, without being able to understand the actual direction that the electoral choices would, however, embarked on, now the reversal of the military situation in favor of Assad was not included in the forecast of the scenarios. The United States was the Syrian War with the belief that the Assad regime would fall, thanks to the aid of the Gulf monarchies and international isolation in which he was plunging Damascus, all without giving due weight to the action of actors such as 'Iran, Hezbollah and, especially, Russia. Assad has so far resisted a substantial military balance against the rebels with the help of Tehran and Hezbollah and playing the card decisive military aviation, an instrument of which are devoid antagonists. In spite of this it had come to a deadlock that has been unlocked substantial Russian intervention. Moscow is not directly involved on the ground, but the massive aid in sophisticated weaponry have turned the tide of the war and the advance of the troops of Damascus, who dare to encroach more and more in Lebanon, show that the possibilities for Assad to stay in power are increasing day by day. In the plans of Putin is strategically important to maintain the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean is located right in Syria, and based on this demand, the Kremlin is pursuing a dangerous tactic in the perspective of international ties. Obama, who is not coming out well from each other, due to the progressive movement of the so-called red line, presented as insurmountable, in relation to the use of chemical weapons, can not allow that Assad remains in power, because that would make the country a Syrian launching pad Iran aimed at Israel. Discarding a priori the possibility of direct intervention, to the President of the United States to do is starting to supply with weapons as sophisticated rebel forces, but the fears remain the same that the American administration has so far held back from doing this step: presence of Islamic extremist forces in the ranks of the opposition. This presence is certified and well known, so much so that there are fears of supply, through the rebels even Al Qaeda, a situation actually not sustainable. Supplies selected are difficult because they require a large number of personnel employed directly on the ground, which is not pleasing to the Obama administration. The immediate requirement is, however, find a solution to prevent the fall of Aleppo, which would mean almost certain defeat for the rebels, who feel increasingly isolated from Western countries, partly because of the news that the supply of arms from Britain and France will begin only in August, when they could be no longer needed. One solution would be to declare a no-fly zone to remove the air forces to Assad, as advocated by Senator McCain, but this possibility clashes with Obama's intentions not to enter directly into the conflict, even with hunting military. It remains to be seen how the U.S. but also Israel, they will face a hypothesis of Assad's hold on power, something that could completely change the balance of the Middle East.
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