The scenario after the Egyptian military intervention

After the removal of President Mursi by the army, it opens a period of uncertainty for the country of Egypt, which remains deeply divided on the inside, sectarian and social issues between trends towards a more guided by the rights and less influenced by religion. If it is true that in the squares of Egyptian cities have poured many of the protesters, highly motivated so that the nation embraces a more democratic way, understood as respect for minorities and of the enjoyment of civil and political rights, it is also true that in the country there is a great silent mass in the last election has almost toppled the prediction electing Mursi in a legitimate way. The methods of government, heavily influenced by the guidelines set forth by the Muslim Brotherhood movement have also distorted instances of the Egyptian Arab Spring, causing major defections also in the party which had elected the president just laid. But the outcome of elections remains heavily in the balance remains in force if this political scenario. The fundamental role of the army is again becoming concretized stabilizing factor of a situation on the brink of profound degeneration, it is not clear yet how much weight they want to have the armed forces, not so much in the transition phase, where they are appointed guarantors of institutional transition, as in the next, whatever we achieve in the upcoming elections. In fact a form of preventive influence the army is already practicing, arresting the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and members of the Party for Freedom and Justice, the government revoked their ally. With this maneuver is expressed the intention of limiting the influence of extremist religious movements to foster a more secular Egyptian political life next venture. This represents a logical culmination in a scenario where the national organization that has a monopoly of force was deeply secular along with much of the country and has not seen exactly this peculiarity protected by a government, that even if a majority confessional , has not been able to find a summary on the general interests of the country mediating between instances religious and non-religious. Now, however, the real risk is that management is not balanced ports advantage of the situation to those formations put offside, which may, in part, rightly, to appeal to the people against what has all the appearance of a coup. The military intervention in fact, while avoiding a drift national, and in this exercising a legitimate role within the country, always has deposed a democratically elected head of state, although it can be argued that government action has Mursi betrayed the universality of the interests of the country, supporting in an abnormal only the prevailing party. On these issues, the rest that the future of the country being able to find a synthesis capable of giving a clear balance trends in the field. The reasoning of the military is to limit the extreme wing of the confessional movements, but it is not easy, because the widespread organization of the Muslim Brotherhood is deeply rooted in Egyptian society and an outlawed, as in the days of Mubarak, the movement is likely to stir up the large number of supporters, who, in turn, could take to the streets causing a further attempt to balance the country. The fact remains that at this time the spirits are too exasperated by both sides to find an immediate understanding that can overcome the deep divisions and mistrust. The skill of the military will be to do settle the contrasts in the shortest possible time so as to speed the transition. The West, meanwhile, will have to watch the evolution Egyptian with fewer illusions and more objectively, without hope, to find that the day after the next election, when they will take place, a village along the lines of mature democracies, but a nation still full of sharp contrasts only be overcome with time and habit to new forms of political life, if anything will be achieved. Also because everything takes place in a highly precarious economic situation, characterized by a deep uncertainty and with a very alarming unemployment figures. In this sense, in order to promote the long-awaited democratic transition, even for the strategic importance of Egypt on the delicate Middle East chessboard, it would be a substantial support to the economy of the country, which could prove a very strong tool of normalization.