Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 19 agosto 2013
In South Korea at the start of the joint military maneuvers with the U.S.
After a period of relative peace on the Korean Peninsula, the situation is likely to crack again. The start of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, may in fact, trigger the reaction of Pyongyang, which traditionally condemns these demonstrations of force, considered the country aimed precisely against North Korea. If for the time being from North Korea, there were no official reaction, it seems unlikely that in the twelve-day period of military exercises, Pyongyang does not make its voice heard. The high number of staff involved, which includes the use of 50,000 South Korean soldiers and 30,000 U.S., will be used in their simulated attacks from North Korea. The assumptions will be taken into account is that conventional attacks with weapons of mass destruction, a clear reference to Pyongyang's nuclear capability, without neglecting to test the ability we resist attacks computer, able to turn off the complex defensive systems in Seoul. The momentary silence of North Korea is considered by analysts made a particularly unusual because the exercises that involve the American enemy media represent a very significant opportunity for the regime in Pyongyang. What you fear is a demonstration of military action that could cause a dangerous degeneration given the enormous presence of forces in the field. But fears regarding the possible major slowdown or even stop the progress made recently since the dialogue between the two Koreas is broken down. The results concerning the reopening of the Kaesong industrial complex, closed unilaterally by Pyongyang during the recent nuclear crisis and measures related to meeting family groups separated. It should be noted that the two countries technically, the legal international, are still at war since the end of the Korean conflict of the fifties of the last century, because the relationship existing between the two countries is only the armistice. The conduct of exercises then arrive at a stage that does not seem too appropriate to make a show of military force. On joint maneuvers, even though they have a habit, perhaps it was necessary to make a careful evaluation, that would put in the foreground, in place, the diplomatic efforts between the two countries. On the other hand, a commitment so extensive it may mean the intention of forcing the hand in Pyongyang to get to favorable conclusions in a faster time, taking advantage of the North Korea's chronic economic situation of the country, or it can mean the recognition of intentions are not benevolent acts by North Korea, which for too long no signs of hostility, maintaining an attitude too reserved, at least atypical for the customs of the North Korean dictatorship. This consideration may be supported by the fact that alongside the military maneuvers, the Seoul government has carried out exercises for civil servants, focusing on the risks arising from an attack from North Korea. If the diplomatic progress could lead to a different opinion, it should be noted that often the political strategy of Pyongyang has been able to surprise the most careful analysis and scholars with a deeper understanding of the subject, with acts or actions are completely unpredictable.
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