Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 28 ottobre 2013
Iran wants to join the peace process in Syria
One of the effects of the reopening of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue to Tehran , was to get out of international isolation into which he had fallen . This was definitely a goal, although not stated , of Rohani , who has always emphasized the need to reduce the country's economic sanctions that have been submitted and that they put Iran in serious trouble . With this understanding, which became the political program that led to the electoral victory , Rohani has shifted the focus from what it was a western equally important need for the country which is considered the highest authority of the Scythians in the world. Keeping this aspect in some hidden way , was a strategy to be implemented hand in hand with the willingness to reopen negotiations , which allowed side effects , one of which was , in fact, come out of isolation and put back into play Iran also on the diplomatic problems concerning different from the one case of nuclear power. So here that Tehran may be present at the next conference on Syria , called Geneva 2 , whose appointment is scheduled for November. In fact, Iran has not yet been formally invited , but the chances that the summit will see its participation are very high, for the role of influence in the region and as an ally of the regime in Damascus , Tehran can claim. The declarations of the Iranian members of the executive are cautious, and are completely different from the bellicose stance of the predecessor Rohani . Iran is showing interest in seeking a political solution to the serious situation in Syria , but its presence can not even think about the protection of their geopolitical interests in the area. Behind the desire to limit extremism , there is indeed a need to stem the growing Sunni component that characterizes the most radical opponents of Assad. If Iran were to lose its influence on the Syrian country could not fail to prefer a democratic and secular type of government , rather than the dreaded Sunni caliphate financed by Gulf monarchies , which would be an element of destabilization of the region and a sure enemy to Tehran . So better a religiously neutral country to the border, instead of the matrix Sunni extremists . But this scenario is an emergency solution for Iran, he hopes , with their inclusion in the peace conference to keep in power in Syria, also in the possible new structures of the state, large parts of the world growth . To do this you need to show collaborative relationships with all stakeholders and upholding the principle of involving representatives from the Assad regime , provided they are not involved in crimes. This position is easily sustainable because the assumed formation of a new state can not be separated from a national peace and can not do without, on the practical side of public administration , public servants already settled in functional positions , that they may know the functioning of the administrative machinery , to allow you to give continuity to state , without having to add additional grounds for termination , as well as those generated by the conflict. On the other hand the needs of the international mediator Brahimi are to involve the largest number of subjects in the negotiation and the belief that external influences are decisive for the peaceful settlement of the conflict , facilitate the entry of Iran at the conference table . The leading advocates of peace negotiations Russia and the USA , ninth should have reason to object to the participation of Iran , the former are allies of Assad and share common interests with Tehran on Syria, while Washington , strong new developments on the relations with Iran , should not put vetoes order not to affect the process of stabilization of the Iranian nuclear issue. More difficult to interpret the position to be taken to the Arab League , where the views of Sunni states ninth should be too favorable to participation of Iran, whilst a refusal would preclude future positive developments groped to normalize relations have traditionally been very tense. Finally, a country that certainly will not participate at the peace conference , but that is highly interested in the development of future balances that can be developed in Syria is Israel, whose executive continues to have serious concerns about Iran's intentions and looking with apprehension at the mode , characterized by caution , back from an international player in Tehran : a return under very statement that puts even more apprehensive Tel Aviv.
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