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martedì 15 ottobre 2013

The Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf fear the resumption of relations between the U.S. and Iran

The evolution of diplomatic contacts between Iran and the U.S. , is judged by all in a positive way . On the same line of Israel , although with different nuances , information forms part of the Sunni states of the Persian Gulf , traditional allies of the United States, who have not welcomed the resumption of relations between Washington and Tehran. Those who believed that a moratorium on nuclear issue military , this is in fact the result that the U.S. tries , could also lead to a détente between the Sunni monarchy and the theocratic state growth will be disappointed . The great religious rivalry , framed in the increasingly bitter conflict theological and political , between Sunnis and Shiites and the vexed question of the doctrine that should have supremacy in the Islamic religion , the divisions are impassable , even if only to be able to establish good neighborly relations . The first consideration is that the Sunni states are on the U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf , where the relations between Washington and Tehran were to really normalize : the result could be a reduction of the actual and the arsenal that the United States uses for years to oversee the Persian Gulf from possible Iranian actions ; these quotas also have the function of defending the Sunni monarchies , as American allies , and a reduction of military force employed in the region, could expose the Arab countries to any hostile acts by Tehran . Even if it is a remote possibility , the reduction of the American presence would mean , however, the downgrading of the importance of the Persian Gulf in U.S. Strategic Framework . However , despite the general apprehension , given by rapprochement between Iran and USA , the positions of the countries of the Gulf Sunnis are not entirely unique . The more skeptical attitude towards the resumption of relations between the two historical enemies is by Saudi Arabia and Bahrain , which are modeled on Israeli positions , who do not believe sincere the new path taken by the Iranians . Saudi Arabia is already disappointed by the non- military attack by the United States to Syria and the novelty of the approach with Tehran to Riyadh raises fears a radical change in American policy approach to the region. This doubt is also fueled by the lack of involvement of the Sunni countries in diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and is interpreted as a mass in the second floor of these states and their interests . In fact, the U.S. did not are shown in the current situation of the Allies particularly sensitive , having considered only their geopolitical necessity , without taking into account the needs, rather than heard, the countries of the Gulf . While the American attitude may be understandable, because it prevented Inserts an element , that of religion , which could bring profound disturbance in the negotiations just started , on the other hand you could not take into account that the susceptibility of the Sunnis would have been wound . In weighing the assets and liabilities of the budget of this phase , Washington preferred to apply only to the Iranians , without excluding a wider involvement in the near future . But this is not a certainty , however, and does not erase the suspicion that the negotiations could stimulate even greater influence on Syria by the country of Iran. This solution is the one that was most disliked by Saudi Arabia, that he hoped to bring Damascus under its influence , to prevent Iran from fulfilling its geopolitical project . If the position of Riyadh is therefore the hardest, those of the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar are more conciliatory towards the resumption of relations between the U.S. and Iran , because they can encourage a general decrease in tension in the Persian Gulf region and then remove the risk of a conflict , often feared by many. This is not true opening of credit lines to Iran , but hopes, fears eased , however, in the sharing of Saudis, a downsizing of the American military presence in the Gulf. This common concern must be quickly dispelled by the U.S., if you do not want to alter valuable relationships with allies prominent , especially at an early stage of a resumption of relations , which , beyond the hopes, is not yet based on definite and safe.

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