Syria: possible developments after the advance of radical Islamic

The evolution that is presenting itself in the field of the Syrian opposition will not be able to play in favor of Assad. The advance of radical Islamic militia , which resulted in the retreat of the rebel troops who identify with the struggle to give Syria a democratic future , has had as immediate consequence of the blocking of non-military supplies , just in this part of the opponents of Damascus , with the result of further weakening in the face of formations belonging to the Islamic fighters . London and Washington have decided virtually instantaneously after the advance of the Islamic Front , to prevent the equipment sent , vehicles, telecommunications equipment , medicines and cash loans , they could end up in the wrong hands. This development warrants, therefore , the hesitancy in attacking Obama Assad , fearing a hostile Syria even more than at present to the west and ends in order to favor the dictator of Damascus in his time in power . On the other hand , in an alliance increasingly torn operate the Gulf countries , led by Saudi Arabia, which is pushing for a seizure of power by Sunnis , amongst which , however, there are different elements linked to Al Qaeda , which wants to make the country the Syrian political and military laboratory in which to launch Islamic war . For now, the Gulf monarchies have not stopped the supply of arms , to all parts of the rebellion , believing preeminent in their regional vision , the fall of Assad , to remove a key ally of Iran and believed to be able to control a hypothetical future government . This fact, in addition to causing problems with Washington, appears as a very serious error of judgment for developments that may arise. A Syria , ripped the influence of Iran, but has become an extremist caliphate , can only be a matter of international management for the West, which blames the Saudi monarchy for the recklessness of choice , endangering an enduring alliance developed with the U.S. in a strategic way if this item were to be lost, it would be a big inconvenience , with Al Qaeda near the borders of home. The evaluation of the Gulf monarchies could fall into a kind of gambling, the results of which are far from obvious. For now, the results reach most urgent is the fall of Assad , to be obtained by any means , including through the use of terrorists and militants unreliable , but it is not impossible to think that you have already planned a second phase , covering the ' removal of these formations for the establishment of a government of Syria released, composed of the elements and forces more presentable in the international scene . If this is the Saudi plan , you can not hide the fact that no major unknowns : in fact take over the country by liberating the Islamic militias , now well armed , it should not be easy, even if they do not dispose of the air force , against which they would hardly escape . In any case, for the country Syrian peace moves away further. There is , however, the variable American, because in such a case , the intervention of U.S. forces would be almost obliged , both to eradicate Al Qaeda from a key country like Syria, is to protect Israel , and because, finally , with the ' Iran out of the game , would not be put at risk the nascent collaborative relationships ; would also recovered fully collaborative relationship with Saudi Arabia , now dangerously cracked. It remains to consider the time factor, especially Syria and its people , is on its knees , the massive exodus of refugees has emptied a country , filling refugee camps in surrounding nations , leaving prohibitive conditions for the cold, people already sorely tried by the long period of war and, with the prospect of spending by Assad sharia law , they can not return to their homes , however, in large part destroyed. The humanitarian emergency , in military and political analysis , is too often overlooked and underestimated , even by those who , for institutional reasons , such as the UN , should be first in line to lavish some compromise solution. But this assumption seems far away, faded in games of power and geopolitics that is dominating the war in Syria.