Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
giovedì 13 marzo 2014
Merkel's strategy against Russia
Angela Merkel, in front of the German parliament, has accused Russia of endangering the stability and the international balance of power , due to the use of force in the Crimea. The tactics that German Chancellor intends to put in place to counter Putin is that of economic sanctions and international isolation . If the first option may produce some effect on the economy with a large availability of raw materials , but that does not have a significant production apparatus , the second one can , instead , backfire West. The effects of isolating Moscow, cutting it off from the ongoing negotiation process , for example, among the most economically important countries , could have a boomerang effect , precluding any form of interview and therefore positive developments. In this sense, it is likely a re- division of the world , which would have its center in the heart of Europe. On the other hand, the isolation would certainly not be complete , definitely would be no dialogue with the Western nations , but Russia may look to other horizons . No coincidence that Moscow has already found a potential ally in Iran : the link with Tehran , in fact , threatens to be only the first step to an alternative perspective to build official contacts with other states. There is also a negative factor from the point of view of energy to Europe, where several countries acceding to the EU, and NATO , among other things , depend almost entirely on Russian gas . The fact remains that Moscow be seen close to the interchange with Berlin, would have considerable economic repercussions . Merkel tip but more on the political repercussions , as an instrument of pressure . But Putin does not seem to deviate from the path taken , also based on the belief that Russia has only responded to the provocations and did not start the question . As you can see the story seems to have run aground in a dead end and it is said that the German will to insist on the input of Ukraine in the EU can have positive effects. Merkel has announced that the signature on the treaty suspended by President Yanukovych, for the entry of Kiev in the European Union , it should be imminent. With this move is intended to provide practical help immediately , both economic as well as military cooperation , Ukraine, with the hope that the Russian advance stops. If Putin were to settle the Crimea , which seems inevitably become detached from the territory of Ukraine , this solution could prevent further action, albeit in a pattern of division and instability , however, the stiffening of Russia to the EU seems obvious . It should then also consider the impact that the cost of entry into Ukraine will have on the budgets of the EU. The German philosophy of inclusion of new members at any cost , to ensure expansion of its products is in clear contrast to the rigor which is then imposed on the historical states of the union . Merkel seems clear lack of consistency in his behavior and seems to use the European Union as a function purely German , not that Ukraine should not be helped but , perhaps, should be studied alternative measures to ease the burden on the coffers of Brussels .
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento