The next possible moves by Putin

Conquered the Crimea, through military invasion , the support of the Russian population and the false veneer of legality of the referendum , for Putin, now is the time to decide on the next course of action . The scenarios present a range of possible consequences variables, which can raise diplomatic issues of some significance . The central theme is the immediate relationship with the Ukraine , the Kremlin may decide to stop militarily to the Crimea and choose not to go forward , despite the urgings of other Russian-speaking population belonging to the eastern part of the country of Ukraine. Unlikely Russia intends to waive expand their dominion over these lands, however , international pressure , which has already decreed the expulsion of the G8 Moscow , Putin could lead to a wait-and- tactics favored by the serious economic situation in Kiev. Russia could invest the same in the country of Ukraine, to fuel the conflict between pro-Russian and pro -Europeans , in order to stir up further serious socio-political situation of the country. This strategy requires a longer time compared to stronger action , and would , as a minimum to obtain a kind of neutrality on the part of Kiev between Europe, the U.S. and Russia. Moscow in this way would get the long-awaited safety belt around his territory , so you do not have to suffer again from encirclement syndrome . But the ultimate goal of this strategy would be the victory of pro-Russian , obtained with robust injections of money, in order to bring Ukraine officially on Russia's side . This battle would be fought with strokes of funding , a weapon of which the Russians have no doubt in greater quantities in the EU. Putin could insist on this strategy , going to influence other Russian-speaking populations , such as Moldova and the three Baltic republics . The goal would be to alter the internal balance of these countries to create social unrest , such as to favor the Russian intervention in a very wide range of possibilities, ranging from the political , to the military . The Kremlin in 2008 he created the precedent of Georgia , where he got to use the apparatus of war , as happened in Ossetia. Of course, this option would not leave the U.S. the opportunity to exercise as a weak reaction to the Crimea, however , if the Baltic republics the use of force is certainly not ruled out the possibility of triggering unrest must be taken into account by analysts in Brussels and Washington. Then there is the worst option , on Ukraine : the advance of the military in the country to the heart of the state. Qesto possibility could be based on the justification that the Russian population is at risk, repeating the pattern used for the Crimea . In this case, Putin would prove to have the need to move quickly to conquer, bluntly , Ukraine , sacrificing international coexistence of short-term strategic objectives . Technically, the Russian army could move from the south , with the means and the soldiers in the base of Sevastopol , while from the east would move the drives in Rostov on the Don River . An impact like that would wipe out the military defenses with ease of Ukraine and the country would achieve in a short time . This option , however, given the current conditions of international tension , it would be a real declaration of war against the West , which , at that point, I could not answer.